ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

Foggia vs Barletta

Foggia Home · Elo 1,384
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barletta Away · Elo 1,620
Stadio Pino Zaccheria, Foggia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Foggia win
Foggia winPick
46.8%
Draw
25.0%
Barletta win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.8%
No61.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.4%
Under 2.558.6%

How much we know

Foggia history58 matches
Barletta history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Foggia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Barletta are rated 236 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,620 against 1,384. On rating alone Barletta would be expected to take 80% of the points on offer.

  • Barletta score far more

    0.88 goals a game over 58 matches for Foggia, against 1.58 over 40 for Barletta.

  • Barletta concede fewer

    Foggia concede 1.53 a game, Barletta 0.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Foggia matches, against 43% for Barletta. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Foggia
Barletta
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1383.9
ELO
1619.9
58
ELO · Matches
40
1383.9
Current Team ELO
1619.9
1619.9
Current Opponent ELO
1383.9
-235.9
Current ELO Difference
235.9
0.20
Expected score
0.80
58
History Matches
40
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.14
42.56
Overperformance
59.65
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.70
0.50
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
40
0.84
PPG
1.95
20.7%
Win rate
55.0%
22.4%
Draw rate
30.0%
56.9%
Loss rate
15.0%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.5%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.5%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
21
1.18
PPG
1.71
32.1%
Win rate
47.6%
21.4%
Draw rate
28.6%
46.4%
Loss rate
23.8%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
28
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.88
Goals for per game
1.58
62.1%
Scoring rate
80.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.38
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.2%
60.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
40
0.88
Goals Mean
1.58
0.83
Goals Std
1.16
62.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
22.4%
Scored 2+ rate
47.5%
3.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
0.75
79.3%
Conceding rate
42.5%
1.39
Goals against per game
0.81
82.1%
Conceding rate
42.9%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
40
1.53
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.25
Conceded Std
0.99
43.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
22.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
0.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
57.5%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
57.5%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
57.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
40
0.89
Result entropy
0.89
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.38
10.61
Stability score
11.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
40
13
Lead Matches
15
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.78
21
Trailing Matches
5
14.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
79.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
35
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.12
21
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.31
87.21
Portability Score
76.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-235.9
PPG-1.11
GF-0.70
GA0.78
PPG2.00
PPG-0.54
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Failed-to-score rate17.9%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.39
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches18
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.67
History Matches18
Conceded Mean0.78
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Conceded 2+ rate18.1%
Conceded 3+ rate14.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches18
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate3.6%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score10.81
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.52
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-235.9
Current Opponent ELO235.9
Current ELO Difference-471.9
Expected score-0.59
History Matches18
Residual Mean-0.24
Overperformance-17.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Foggia

D
Casarano2–2Foggia2 Nov · away
Pick: Casarano 46% · missed
W
Foggia1–0Cavese25 Oct · home
Pick: Foggia 48% · hit
L
Giugliano3–1Foggia19 Oct · away
Pick: Giugliano 46% · hit
W
Cosenza0–2Foggia4 Oct · away
Pick: Cosenza 40% · missed
D
Foggia1–1Salernitana29 Aug · home
Pick: Salernitana 45% · missed

Barletta

D
Barletta0–0SS Monopoli31 Oct · home
Pick: Barletta 49% · missed
L
Scafatese1–0Barletta24 Oct · away
Pick: Scafatese 54% · hit
W
Barletta1–0AZ Picerno18 Oct · home
Pick: Barletta 40% · hit
D
Barletta1–1Cavese12 Oct · home
Pick: Barletta 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Foggia and Barletta meet in Serie C - Girone C on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Pino Zaccheria, Foggia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Foggia win 46.8%, draw 25.0%, Barletta win 28.2%. The pick is Foggia win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.4%. Both teams to score: 38.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.