ScoreProb
Campionato San Marino Round 8 2026

Folgore vs Virtus

Folgore Home · Elo 1,570
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Virtus Away · Elo 1,643
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Virtus win
Folgore win
29.1%
Draw
25.4%
Virtus winPick
45.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Folgore history49 matches
Virtus history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Virtus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Virtus are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,643 against 1,570. On rating alone Virtus would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.78 goals a game over 49 matches for Folgore, against 1.97 over 64 for Virtus.

  • Virtus concede fewer

    Folgore concede 1.16 a game, Virtus 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Folgore matches, against 50% for Virtus. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Folgore
Virtus
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1570.2
ELO
1642.8
49
ELO · Matches
64
1570.2
Current Team ELO
1642.8
1642.8
Current Opponent ELO
1570.2
-72.51
Current ELO Difference
72.51
0.40
Expected score
0.60
49
History Matches
64
0.07
Residual Mean
0.11
55.16
Overperformance
58.68
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
2.20
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.62
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
64
1.65
PPG
2.08
44.9%
Win rate
62.5%
30.6%
Draw rate
20.3%
24.5%
Loss rate
17.2%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
34.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.6%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
30
1.56
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
53.3%
36.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
24.0%
Loss rate
26.7%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
25
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.78
Goals for per game
1.97
83.7%
Scoring rate
85.9%
55.1%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.68
Goals for per game
2.03
80.0%
Scoring rate
86.7%
52.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
49
History Matches
64
1.78
Goals Mean
1.97
1.47
Goals Std
1.54
83.7%
Scored 1+ rate
85.9%
46.9%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
26.6%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
2.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.16
Goals against per game
0.80
67.3%
Conceding rate
48.4%
1.16
Goals against per game
0.97
64.0%
Conceding rate
53.3%
49
History Matches
64
1.16
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.04
Conceded Std
1.02
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.3%
10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.6%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.1%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.6%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.1%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
51.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
64
0.97
Result entropy
0.84
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.94
2.93
Stability score
16.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
64
22
Lead Matches
32
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.96
16
Trailing Matches
11
50.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
185.8
Rest days
113.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
28
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.21
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.54
Portability PPG Range
1.75
64.86
Portability Score
44.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-72.51
PPG-0.43
GF-0.19
GA0.37
PPG-0.24
PPG0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-13.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.45
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate22.7%
Trailing Win Rate18.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-6
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-1.21
Portability Score20.13
Rest days72.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-72.51
Current Opponent ELO72.51
Current ELO Difference-145.0
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Folgore

D
Folgore1–1Tre Penne1 Nov · home
Pick: Tre Penne 47% · missed
W
Folgore1–0Libertas28 Oct · home
Pick: Folgore 63% · hit
W
Libertas1–2Folgore25 Oct · away
Pick: Folgore 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Virtus

W
Domagnano0–1Virtus31 Oct · away
Pick: Virtus 52% · hit
W
Virtus3–0Murata28 Oct · home
Pick: Virtus 68% · hit
W
Juvenes / Dogana0–1Virtus23 Oct · away
Pick: Virtus 48% · hit
D
Virtus0–0La Fiorita30 Aug · home
Pick: Virtus 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Folgore and Virtus meet in Campionato on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Folgore win 29.1%, draw 25.4%, Virtus win 45.5%. The pick is Virtus win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.