ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone H Italy Group H - 11 2026

Francavilla vs Virtus Francavilla

Francavilla Home · Elo 1,510
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Virtus Francavilla Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Francavilla win
Francavilla winPick
50.3%
Draw
25.7%
Virtus Francavilla win
24.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.1%
Under 2.550.9%

How much we know

Francavilla history54 matches
Virtus Francavilla history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Francavilla are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,510 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Virtus Francavilla score more

    1.15 goals a game over 54 matches for Francavilla, against 1.29 over 48 for Virtus Francavilla.

  • Francavilla concede fewer

    Francavilla concede 1.07 a game, Virtus Francavilla 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Francavilla matches, against 48% for Virtus Francavilla. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Francavilla
Virtus Francavilla
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.5
ELO
1500.3
54
ELO · Matches
48
1510.5
Current Team ELO
1500.3
1500.3
Current Opponent ELO
1510.5
10.18
Current ELO Difference
-10.18
0.51
Expected score
0.49
54
History Matches
48
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.70
Overperformance
50.34
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
48
1.39
PPG
1.27
37.0%
Win rate
29.2%
27.8%
Draw rate
39.6%
35.2%
Loss rate
31.3%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
42.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
23
1.37
PPG
1.39
37.0%
Win rate
34.8%
25.9%
Draw rate
34.8%
37.0%
Loss rate
30.4%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
27
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
1.29
68.5%
Scoring rate
68.8%
46.3%
BTTS rate
52.1%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.43
74.1%
Scoring rate
69.6%
51.9%
BTTS rate
52.2%
54
History Matches
48
1.15
Goals Mean
1.29
1.03
Goals Std
1.21
68.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.23
66.7%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.22
74.1%
Conceding rate
65.2%
54
History Matches
48
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.02
Conceded Std
1.03
29.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
48
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.65
0.67
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
48
15
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.77
12
Trailing Matches
14
16.7%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
14
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.48
76.23
Portability Score
67.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO10.18
PPG0.12
GF-0.14
GA-0.16
PPG-0.02
PPG1.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.2%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-0.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate10.8%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score8.81
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.54
Current Team ELO10.18
Current Opponent ELO-10.18
Current ELO Difference20.36
Expected score0.03
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Francavilla

L
Fidelis Andria2–0Francavilla1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
W
Francavilla2–1Real Forio 201425 Oct · home
Pick: Francavilla 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Virtus Francavilla

W
Turris1–2Virtus Francavilla1 Nov · away
Pick: Virtus Francavilla 60% · hit
W
Fidelis Andria0–1Virtus Francavilla28 Oct · away
Pick: Fidelis Andria 38% · missed
W
Virtus Francavilla2–0Manfredonia25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
W
Virtus Francavilla3–0Gravina7 Oct · home
Pick: Gravina 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Francavilla and Virtus Francavilla meet in Serie D - Girone H on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Francavilla win 50.3%, draw 25.7%, Virtus Francavilla win 24.0%. The pick is Francavilla win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.1%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.