ScoreProb
Football League - Highland League Scotland Highland League - 21 2026

Fraserburgh vs Forres Mechanics

Fraserburgh Home · Elo 1,601
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Forres Mechanics Away · Elo 1,451
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fraserburgh win
Fraserburgh winPick
76.8%
Draw
14.5%
Forres Mechanics win
8.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.5%
No44.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.7%
Under 2.527.3%

How much we know

Fraserburgh history55 matches
Forres Mechanics history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.8%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Fraserburgh are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fraserburgh are rated 150 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,601 against 1,451. On rating alone Fraserburgh would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Fraserburgh score more

    2.15 goals a game over 55 matches for Fraserburgh, against 1.57 over 47 for Forres Mechanics.

  • Fraserburgh concede fewer

    Fraserburgh concede 0.93 a game, Forres Mechanics 1.98.

  • Forres Mechanics games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Fraserburgh matches, against 70% for Forres Mechanics. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fraserburgh
Forres Mechanics
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1601.0
ELO
1450.6
55
ELO · Matches
47
1601.0
Current Team ELO
1450.6
1450.6
Current Opponent ELO
1601.0
150.4
Current ELO Difference
-150.4
0.70
Expected score
0.30
55
History Matches
47
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.05
56.88
Overperformance
46.21
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
0.60
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
2.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.46
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
47
2.05
PPG
1.13
63.6%
Win rate
29.8%
14.5%
Draw rate
23.4%
21.8%
Loss rate
46.8%
76.4%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.2%
43.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.8%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
24
2.21
PPG
1.29
69.0%
Win rate
37.5%
13.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
17.2%
Loss rate
45.8%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
95.8%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
87.5%
41.4%
Over 3.5 rate
54.2%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
29
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.15
Goals for per game
1.57
85.5%
Scoring rate
78.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
68.1%
2.48
Goals for per game
1.75
86.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
37.9%
BTTS rate
75.0%
2.43
Goals for per game
2.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
14.3%
BTTS rate
85.7%
55
History Matches
47
2.15
Goals Mean
1.57
1.79
Goals Std
1.40
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
38.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
2.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.93
Goals against per game
1.98
50.9%
Conceding rate
89.4%
0.66
Goals against per game
2.21
48.3%
Conceding rate
91.7%
0.29
Goals against per game
1.57
14.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
47
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.98
1.16
Conceded Std
1.42
25.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.4%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.7%
0.66
Venue Conceded Mean
2.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
51.7%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
85.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
51.7%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
47
0.82
Result entropy
0.96
2.43
Goal Difference Std
2.36
18.06
Stability score
3.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
37
20
Lead Matches
13
95.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.82
11
Trailing Matches
18
18.2%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.80
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.71
28
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.29
PPG
1.57
71.4%
Win rate
42.9%
14.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.29
Current Competition PPG
1.57
2.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.43
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.29
Portability PPG Range
0.61
48.38
Portability Score
64.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO150.4
PPG0.93
GF0.57
GA-1.05
PPG0.71
PPG0.92
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate38.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate43.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate6.7%
Scored 2+ rate8.7%
Scored 3+ rate16.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-1.05
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score14.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate18.1%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.71
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.68
Portability Score-16.48
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.89
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO150.4
Current Opponent ELO-150.4
Current ELO Difference300.8
Expected score0.41
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance10.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fraserburgh

D
Turriff United1–1Fraserburgh31 Oct · away
Pick: Fraserburgh 56% · missed
D
Nairn County2–2Fraserburgh24 Oct · away
Pick: Fraserburgh 69% · missed
D
Fraserburgh1–1Brora Rangers17 Oct · home
Pick: Fraserburgh 44% · missed
L
Fraserburgh2–3Dundee II13 Oct · home
Pick: Fraserburgh 87% · missed
W
Banks O' Dee1–3Fraserburgh7 Oct · away
Pick: Fraserburgh 57% · hit

Forres Mechanics

W
Invergordon2–4Forres Mechanics31 Oct · away
Pick: Forres Mechanics 56% · hit
D
Forres Mechanics2–2Huntly17 Oct · home
Pick: Forres Mechanics 47% · missed
L
Forres Mechanics2–5Brora Rangers7 Oct · home
Pick: Brora Rangers 57% · hit
L
Forres Mechanics1–2Formartine United29 Aug · home
Pick: Formartine United 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fraserburgh and Forres Mechanics meet in Football League - Highland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fraserburgh win 76.8%, draw 14.5%, Forres Mechanics win 8.8%. The pick is Fraserburgh win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.7%. Both teams to score: 55.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.