ScoreProb
Second League Bulgaria Round 15 2026

Fratria vs Sportist Svoge

Fratria Home · Elo 1,574
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sportist Svoge Away · Elo 1,440
Albena Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fratria win
Fratria winPick
59.0%
Draw
22.4%
Sportist Svoge win
18.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Fratria history63 matches
Sportist Svoge history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Fratria are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fratria are rated 135 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,574 against 1,440. On rating alone Fratria would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Fratria score far more

    1.67 goals a game over 63 matches for Fratria, against 0.91 over 65 for Sportist Svoge.

  • Fratria concede fewer

    Fratria concede 1.11 a game, Sportist Svoge 1.37.

  • Fratria games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Fratria matches, against 43% for Sportist Svoge. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fratria
Sportist Svoge
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1574.5
ELO
1439.6
63
ELO · Matches
65
1574.5
Current Team ELO
1439.6
1439.6
Current Opponent ELO
1574.5
134.9
Current ELO Difference
-134.9
0.68
Expected score
0.32
63
History Matches
65
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.05
54.01
Overperformance
46.40
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
0.70
0.70
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
65
1.65
PPG
1.14
46.0%
Win rate
29.2%
27.0%
Draw rate
26.2%
27.0%
Loss rate
44.6%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.1%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
1.93
PPG
0.97
60.0%
Win rate
24.2%
13.3%
Draw rate
24.2%
26.7%
Loss rate
51.5%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.6%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
0.91
82.5%
Scoring rate
49.2%
50.8%
BTTS rate
30.8%
1.97
Goals for per game
0.73
83.3%
Scoring rate
45.5%
43.3%
BTTS rate
27.3%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
63
History Matches
65
1.67
Goals Mean
0.91
1.28
Goals Std
1.15
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
49.2%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
26.2%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.37
65.1%
Conceding rate
67.7%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.48
60.0%
Conceding rate
63.6%
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
63
History Matches
65
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.09
Conceded Std
1.34
31.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.9%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
65
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.87
3.14
Stability score
2.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
63
26
Lead Matches
10
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
16
Trailing Matches
16
31.3%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
36
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
26
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
20.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.40
Portability PPG Range
0.50
46.56
Portability Score
71.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO134.9
PPG0.51
GF0.76
GA-0.26
PPG1.00
PPG0.96
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.76
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate33.3%
Scored 2+ rate21.5%
Scored 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range0.90
Portability Score-25.36
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.89
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO134.9
Current Opponent ELO-134.9
Current ELO Difference269.8
Expected score0.37
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fratria

L
Fratria1–2Montana28 Oct · home
Pick: Fratria 58% · missed
L
Fratria1–2Botev Vratsa18 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Vratsa 40% · hit
D
Hebar 19181–1Fratria1 Sep · away
Pick: Fratria 48% · missed
W
Fratria1–0CSKA Sofia II29 Aug · home
Pick: Fratria 39% · hit
D
Vihren2–2Fratria24 Aug · away
Pick: Vihren 39% · missed

Sportist Svoge

D
Sportist Svoge1–1Ludogorets II2 Nov · home
Pick: Sportist Svoge 45% · missed
D
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas1–1Sportist Svoge23 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 50% · missed
D
Neftochimic Burgas1–1Sportist Svoge4 Oct · away
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 37% · missed
D
Sportist Svoge0–0Marek29 Aug · home
Pick: Sportist Svoge 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fratria and Sportist Svoge meet in Second League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Albena Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Fratria win 59.0%, draw 22.4%, Sportist Svoge win 18.6%. The pick is Fratria win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.