ScoreProb
Jupiler Pro League Belgium Round 11 2026

Gent vs Kortrijk

Gent Home · Elo 1,568
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kortrijk Away · Elo 1,550
Planet Group Arena, Gent Referee: J. Boterberg Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gent win
Gent winPick
57.8%
Draw
19.2%
Kortrijk win
23.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

Gent history77 matches
Kortrijk history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Gent are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,568 against 1,550. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Kortrijk score more

    1.31 goals a game over 77 matches for Gent, against 1.74 over 62 for Kortrijk.

  • Kortrijk concede fewer

    Gent concede 1.47 a game, Kortrijk 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Gent matches, against 55% for Kortrijk. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gent
Kortrijk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.5
ELO
1549.9
77
ELO · Matches
62
1568.5
Current Team ELO
1549.9
1549.9
Current Opponent ELO
1568.5
18.59
Current ELO Difference
-18.59
0.53
Expected score
0.47
77
History Matches
62
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
53.39
Overperformance
53.11
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.90
2.10
Goals for per game
1.10
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
62
1.31
PPG
1.68
33.8%
Win rate
50.0%
29.9%
Draw rate
17.7%
36.4%
Loss rate
32.3%
74.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
30
1.32
PPG
1.33
35.1%
Win rate
40.0%
27.0%
Draw rate
13.3%
37.8%
Loss rate
46.7%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
37
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.74
67.5%
Scoring rate
79.0%
48.1%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.60
67.6%
Scoring rate
63.3%
43.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
77
History Matches
62
1.31
Goals Mean
1.74
1.37
Goals Std
1.42
67.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.0%
31.2%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
19.5%
Scored 3+ rate
27.4%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.27
68.8%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.43
64.9%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
3.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
62
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.42
Conceded Std
1.02
39.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
24.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
62
1.00
Result entropy
0.93
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.86
0.29
Stability score
7.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
61
22
Lead Matches
28
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.82
23
Trailing Matches
14
17.4%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
45
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.31
Portability PPG Range
1.06
51.13
Portability Score
56.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO18.59
PPG-0.37
GF-0.43
GA0.19
PPG3.00
PPG-0.01
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Conceded 2+ rate3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate15.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches15
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score-7.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate10.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-5.24
Rest days-0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO18.59
Current Opponent ELO-18.59
Current ELO Difference37.19
Expected score0.05
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.52

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gent

L
Lommel United2–0Gent1 Nov · away
Pick: Gent 42% · missed
W
Gent4–0Anderlecht25 Oct · home
Pick: Gent 52% · hit
L
SC Braga2–0Gent22 Oct · away
Pick: SC Braga 57% · hit
W
Gent1–0Aarhus15 Oct · home
Pick: Gent 40% · hit
W
Gent2–1Club Brugge KV30 Aug · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 51% · missed

Kortrijk

D
Standard Liege1–1Kortrijk31 Oct · away
Pick: Standard Liege 55% · missed
L
Kortrijk1–3Charleroi29 Aug · home
Pick: Charleroi 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gent and Kortrijk meet in Jupiler Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Planet Group Arena, Gent. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gent win 57.8%, draw 19.2%, Kortrijk win 23.0%. The pick is Gent win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.