Gimnastic vs Real Madrid II
Match result probability Model pick: Gimnastic win
Gimnastic winPick
45.2%
Draw
23.9%
Real Madrid II win
30.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.1%
No45.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%
How much we know
Gimnastic history72 matches
Real Madrid II history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Gimnastic
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 19:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 20:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Gimnastic are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Real Madrid II are rated 97 Elo points higher
Elo 1,560 against 1,463. On rating alone Real Madrid II would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Real Madrid II score more
1.22 goals a game over 72 matches for Gimnastic, against 1.48 over 69 for Real Madrid II.
-
Defences are close
Gimnastic concede 1.28 a game, Real Madrid II 1.17.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
44% of Gimnastic matches, against 51% for Real Madrid II. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Madrid II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1463.3
ELO
1559.9
72
ELO · Matches
69
1463.3
Current Team ELO
1559.9
1559.9
Current Opponent ELO
1463.3
-96.58
Current ELO Difference
96.58
0.36
Expected score
0.64
72
History Matches
69
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
47.79
Overperformance
53.38
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals 90
72
Matches
69
1.29
PPG
1.55
34.7%
Win rate
39.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
37.7%
40.3%
Loss rate
23.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.7%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
34
1.60
PPG
1.29
45.7%
Win rate
29.4%
22.9%
Draw rate
41.2%
31.4%
Loss rate
29.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
54.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
35
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
1.48
68.1%
Scoring rate
73.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.1%
1.51
Goals for per game
1.44
77.1%
Scoring rate
67.6%
54.3%
BTTS rate
55.9%
72
History Matches
69
1.22
Goals Mean
1.48
1.11
Goals Std
1.27
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
73.9%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
46.4%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.17
76.4%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.41
74.3%
Conceding rate
73.5%
72
History Matches
69
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.00
Conceded Std
1.09
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
72
History Matches
69
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.68
1.68
Stability score
2.26
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
72
Eligible Matches
68
18
Lead Matches
16
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.83
29
Trailing Matches
18
24.1%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.49
Rest days
84.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
41
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
29
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.03
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.15
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.13
1.15
Portability PPG Range
0.36
55.95
Portability Score
78.80
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
72
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-96.58
PPG-0.26
GF-0.26
GA0.10
PPG0.31
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.19
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.79
Portability Score-22.85
Rest days-0.60
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.12
Current Team ELO-96.58
Current Opponent ELO96.58
Current ELO Difference-193.2
Expected score-0.27
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Gimnastic
L
Huesca2–0Gimnastic2 Nov · away
Pick: Huesca 42% · hit W
Gimnastic4–2Hércules25 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnastic 47% · hit W
Gimnastic2–1Atlético Madrid II18 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnastic 52% · hit L
Real Murcia2–0Gimnastic4 Oct · away
Pick: Real Murcia 38% · hit W
Gimnastic2–0Zaragoza30 Aug · home
Pick: Gimnastic 38% · hit Real Madrid II
W
Real Madrid II2–0FC Cartagena31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid II 53% · hit L
Algeciras2–0Real Madrid II25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid II 39% · missed W
Real Madrid II3–2Antequera18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid II 55% · hit D
Teruel0–0Real Madrid II31 Aug · away
Pick: Real Madrid II 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Gimnastic and Real Madrid II meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 20:15 UTC. The match is played at Nou Estadi de Tarragona. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Gimnastic win 45.2%, draw 23.9%, Real Madrid II win 30.9%. The pick is Gimnastic win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.