ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Gretna 2008 vs Dalbeattie Star

Gretna 2008 Home · Elo 1,366
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dalbeattie Star Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dalbeattie Star win
Gretna 2008 win
25.3%
Draw
13.1%
Dalbeattie Star winPick
61.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.7%
Under 2.529.3%

How much we know

Gretna 2008 history50 matches
Dalbeattie Star history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.

Why Dalbeattie Star are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dalbeattie Star are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,475 against 1,366. On rating alone Dalbeattie Star would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Gretna 2008 score far more

    1.44 goals a game over 50 matches for Gretna 2008, against 0.60 over 5 for Dalbeattie Star.

  • Dalbeattie Star concede fewer

    Gretna 2008 concede 2.74 a game, Dalbeattie Star 2.00.

  • Gretna 2008 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Gretna 2008 matches, against 40% for Dalbeattie Star. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gretna 2008
Dalbeattie Star@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1366.4
ELO
1474.7
50
ELO · Matches
5
1366.4
Current Team ELO
1474.7
1474.7
Current Opponent ELO
1366.4
-108.3
Current ELO Difference
108.3
0.35
Expected score
0.65
50
History Matches
5
-0.14
Residual Mean
-0.27
40.15
Overperformance
44.61
-0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
4.40
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
5
0.10
PPG
0.40
1.30
Goals for per game
0.60
4.40
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
4.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.67
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
5
0.72
PPG
0.40
18.0%
Win rate
0.0%
18.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
64.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
96.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
78.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
54.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
3
0.74
PPG
0.67
17.4%
Win rate
0.0%
21.7%
Draw rate
66.7%
60.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
73.9%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
47.8%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
23
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
0.60
76.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
72.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.43
Goals for per game
0.67
78.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
73.9%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
50
History Matches
5
1.44
Goals Mean
0.60
1.27
Goals Std
0.80
76.0%
Scored 1+ rate
40.0%
42.0%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.74
Goals against per game
2.00
94.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.83
Goals against per game
1.00
95.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
4.40
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
50
History Matches
5
2.74
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.69
Conceded Std
1.67
74.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
2.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
6.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
4.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
6.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
4.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
6.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
5
0.82
Result entropy
0.61
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.50
17.81
Stability score
38.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
5
10
Lead Matches
0
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.53
Lead Points Retention
—
22
Trailing Matches
4
9.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
1.12
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
1.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.25
Rest days
83.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.25
17
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.40
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
0.40
-2.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
5
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.26
Portability PPG Std
—
0.64
Portability PPG Range
—
65.51
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-108.3
PPG0.32
GF0.84
GA0.74
PPG-0.20
PPG0.07
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches45
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate-0.45
History Matches45
Goals Mean0.84
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate36.0%
Scored 2+ rate22.0%
Scored 3+ rate14.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches45
Conceded Mean0.74
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate30.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches45
Result entropy0.21
Goal Difference Std0.68
Stability score-20.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.32
Eligible Matches44
Lead Matches10
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches44
First Half Goals For Mean0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.40
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches17
Current Team ELO-108.3
Current Opponent ELO108.3
Current ELO Difference-216.6
Expected score-0.30
History Matches45
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance-4.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gretna 2008

L
Cumnock Juniors4–1Gretna 200831 Oct · away
Pick: Cumnock Juniors 59% · hit
L
Gretna 20080–3Cumnock Juniors24 Oct · home
Pick: Gretna 2008 58% · missed
D
Gretna 20082–2Johnstone Burgh17 Oct · home
Pick: Johnstone Burgh 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dalbeattie Star

L
Dalbeattie Star2–8Clydebank31 Oct · home
Pick: Clydebank 69% · hit
L
Kilwinning Rangers4–0Dalbeattie Star17 Oct · away
Pick: Kilwinning Rangers 70% · hit
L
Johnstone Burgh4–0Dalbeattie Star29 Aug · away
Pick: Johnstone Burgh 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gretna 2008 and Dalbeattie Star meet in Football League - Lowland League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Gretna 2008 win 25.3%, draw 13.1%, Dalbeattie Star win 61.6%. The pick is Dalbeattie Star win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.7%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.