ScoreProb
Liga MX Femenil Mexico Round 14 2026

Guadalajara W vs América W

Guadalajara W Home · Elo 1,606
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
América W Away · Elo 1,715
Estadio Akron, Zapopan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: América W win
Guadalajara W win
20.6%
Draw
21.5%
América W winPick
57.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%

How much we know

Guadalajara W history53 matches
América W history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:06 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why América W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • América W are rated 109 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,715 against 1,606. On rating alone América W would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • América W score far more

    1.66 goals a game over 53 matches for Guadalajara W, against 3.02 over 66 for América W.

  • Defences are close

    Guadalajara W concede 1.00 a game, América W 1.03.

  • América W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Guadalajara W matches, against 71% for América W. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guadalajara W
América W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1606.1
ELO
1714.7
53
ELO · Matches
66
1606.1
Current Team ELO
1714.7
1714.7
Current Opponent ELO
1606.1
-108.6
Current ELO Difference
108.6
0.35
Expected score
0.65
53
History Matches
66
0.10
Residual Mean
0.16
56.99
Overperformance
62.54
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
3.00
2.20
Goals for per game
6.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.70
1.80
Goals for per game
4.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
4.80
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.60
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
66
1.85
PPG
2.26
52.8%
Win rate
68.2%
26.4%
Draw rate
21.2%
20.8%
Loss rate
10.6%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.4%
39.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.2%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
53.0%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
32
2.15
PPG
1.91
61.5%
Win rate
53.1%
30.8%
Draw rate
31.3%
7.7%
Loss rate
15.6%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
26
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
3.02
83.0%
Scoring rate
92.4%
52.8%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.85
Goals for per game
2.44
92.3%
Scoring rate
87.5%
61.5%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.75
Goals for per game
6.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
53
History Matches
66
1.66
Goals Mean
3.02
1.40
Goals Std
2.11
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
92.4%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
77.3%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
51.5%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
2.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.03
64.2%
Conceding rate
59.1%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.09
65.4%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
53
History Matches
66
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.03
0.95
Conceded Std
1.04
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.8%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
7.6%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
7.6%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
66
0.92
Result entropy
0.75
1.68
Goal Difference Std
2.51
7.60
Stability score
24.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
66
17
Lead Matches
40
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
82.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.88
13
Trailing Matches
13
46.2%
Non-loss rate
53.8%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
30.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
1.45
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.56
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.13
Rest days
75.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.70
30
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.18
19
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
3.00
75.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
6.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.44
Portability PPG Range
0.93
71.23
Portability Score
57.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-108.6
PPG-0.41
GF-1.35
GA-0.03
PPG-0.75
PPG0.25
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-1.35
Goals Std-0.71
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-3.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.43
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.83
Stability score-17.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.43
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-23
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.75
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.49
Portability Score13.61
Rest days0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.37
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-108.6
Current Opponent ELO108.6
Current ELO Difference-217.1
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Guadalajara W

W
Toluca W2–3Guadalajara W31 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca W 42% · missed
W
Atlante W0–1Guadalajara W26 Oct · away
Pick: Guadalajara W 66% · hit
W
Guadalajara W7–0Necaxa W21 Oct · home
Pick: Guadalajara W 94% · hit
W
Guadalajara W1–0Juárez W4 Oct · home
Pick: Guadalajara W 63% · hit
L
Guadalajara W0–2Pumas UNAM W30 Aug · home
Pick: Guadalajara W 62% · missed

América W

W
América W6–0Atlante W1 Nov · home
Pick: América W 83% · hit
W
Atlético San Luis W0–7América W24 Oct · away
Pick: América W 88% · hit
W
América W2–1Pachuca W19 Oct · home
Pick: América W 62% · hit
W
América W3–1Tijuana W30 Aug · home
Pick: América W 73% · hit
W
Necaxa W0–7América W24 Aug · away
Pick: América W 92% · hit

About this match

Guadalajara W and América W meet in Liga MX Femenil on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:06 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Akron, Zapopan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Guadalajara W win 20.6%, draw 21.5%, América W win 57.9%. The pick is América W win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.9%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.