ScoreProb
Premier League Malta Round 12 2026

Gzira United vs Balzan FC

Gzira United Home · Elo 1,504
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Balzan FC Away · Elo 1,560
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Balzan FC win
Gzira United win
33.5%
Draw
28.1%
Balzan FC winPick
38.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%

How much we know

Gzira United history55 matches
Balzan FC history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 8 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Balzan FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Balzan FC are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,560 against 1,504. On rating alone Balzan FC would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Balzan FC score far more

    1.15 goals a game over 55 matches for Gzira United, against 1.79 over 39 for Balzan FC.

  • Balzan FC concede fewer

    Gzira United concede 1.44 a game, Balzan FC 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Gzira United matches, against 56% for Balzan FC. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gzira United
Balzan FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.3
ELO
1560.0
55
ELO · Matches
39
1504.3
Current Team ELO
1560.0
1560.0
Current Opponent ELO
1504.3
-55.71
Current ELO Difference
55.71
0.42
Expected score
0.58
55
History Matches
39
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
50.44
Overperformance
55.18
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
39
1.36
PPG
1.69
38.2%
Win rate
46.2%
21.8%
Draw rate
30.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
23.1%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
19
1.46
PPG
2.00
39.3%
Win rate
57.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
26.3%
32.1%
Loss rate
15.8%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
28
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.79
67.3%
Scoring rate
79.5%
49.1%
BTTS rate
56.4%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.79
60.7%
Scoring rate
78.9%
42.9%
BTTS rate
57.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
39
1.15
Goals Mean
1.79
1.05
Goals Std
1.40
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.5%
32.7%
Scored 2+ rate
48.7%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.03
70.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.18
Goals against per game
0.84
67.9%
Conceding rate
68.4%
3.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
39
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.29
Conceded Std
1.00
43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
0.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
39
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.83
2.94
Stability score
3.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
39
14
Lead Matches
14
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
1.00
18
Trailing Matches
13
27.8%
Non-loss rate
53.8%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.97
Rest days
75.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
21
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-3.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
7
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.10
59.98
Portability Score
47.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-55.71
PPG-0.33
GF-0.65
GA0.41
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.54
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate18.2%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.65
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches16
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.26
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate3.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score12.32
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO-55.71
Current Opponent ELO55.71
Current ELO Difference-111.4
Expected score-0.16
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gzira United

D
Gzira United2–2Birzebbuga25 Oct · home
Pick: Birzebbuga 39% · missed
L
Hibernians2–1Gzira United22 Oct · away
Pick: Hibernians 60% · hit
D
Gzira United2–2Hamrun Spartans18 Oct · home
Pick: Hamrun Spartans 48% · missed
D
Gzira United1–1Mosta14 Oct · home
Pick: Gzira United 38% · missed
L
Balzan FC2–1Gzira United29 Aug · away
Pick: Balzan FC 55% · hit

Balzan FC

L
Balzan FC0–2Birkirkara25 Oct · home
Pick: Birkirkara 46% · hit
D
Hamrun Spartans1–1Balzan FC21 Oct · away
Pick: Hamrun Spartans 52% · missed
L
Balzan FC1–2Zabbar St. Patrick17 Oct · home
Pick: Balzan FC 44% · missed
W
Balzan FC2–1Gzira United29 Aug · home
Pick: Balzan FC 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gzira United and Balzan FC meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Gzira United win 33.5%, draw 28.1%, Balzan FC win 38.4%. The pick is Balzan FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.7%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.