ScoreProb
Premiership Scotland Round 13 2026

Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk

Heart Of Midlothian Home · Elo 1,631
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Falkirk Away · Elo 1,540
Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Heart Of Midlothian win
Heart Of Midlothian winPick
67.2%
Draw
16.2%
Falkirk win
16.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.9%
Under 2.542.1%

How much we know

Heart Of Midlothian history72 matches
Falkirk history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Heart Of Midlothian are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Heart Of Midlothian are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,540. On rating alone Heart Of Midlothian would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Heart Of Midlothian score more

    1.86 goals a game over 72 matches for Heart Of Midlothian, against 1.61 over 70 for Falkirk.

  • Heart Of Midlothian concede fewer

    Heart Of Midlothian concede 1.03 a game, Falkirk 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Heart Of Midlothian matches, against 57% for Falkirk. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Heart Of Midlothian
Falkirk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.5
ELO
1539.6
72
ELO · Matches
70
1630.5
Current Team ELO
1539.6
1539.6
Current Opponent ELO
1630.5
90.92
Current ELO Difference
-90.92
0.63
Expected score
0.37
72
History Matches
70
0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
57.11
Overperformance
52.19
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
70
1.94
PPG
1.51
58.3%
Win rate
42.9%
19.4%
Draw rate
22.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
34.3%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
35
2.30
PPG
1.40
70.3%
Win rate
37.1%
18.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
10.8%
Loss rate
34.3%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
37
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.61
86.1%
Scoring rate
74.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.6%
2.08
Goals for per game
1.34
91.9%
Scoring rate
62.9%
48.6%
BTTS rate
37.1%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.86
Goals Mean
1.61
1.35
Goals Std
1.53
86.1%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
54.2%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
29.2%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.29
61.1%
Conceding rate
65.7%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.17
56.8%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.18
Conceded Std
1.32
23.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
8.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
8.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
70
0.88
Result entropy
0.97
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.17
11.97
Stability score
2.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
70
28
Lead Matches
23
96.4%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.83
18
Trailing Matches
25
50.0%
Non-loss rate
32.0%
27.8%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.08
Rest days
91.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.14
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
41
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
11
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.93
Portability PPG Range
0.71
60.72
Portability Score
66.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO90.92
PPG0.43
GF0.25
GA-0.26
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate11.8%
Scored 2+ rate11.3%
Scored 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score9.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.40
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate18.0%
Trailing Win Rate15.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-6.18
Rest days-6.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.39
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO90.92
Current Opponent ELO-90.92
Current ELO Difference181.8
Expected score0.26
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Heart Of Midlothian

L
Heart Of Midlothian1–2Hibernian1 Nov · home
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 51% · missed
W
Motherwell0–2Heart Of Midlothian25 Oct · away
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 45% · hit
L
Trabzonspor2–0Heart Of Midlothian22 Oct · away
Pick: Trabzonspor 37% · hit
L
Celtic7–1Heart Of Midlothian18 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic 66% · hit
D
Heart Of Midlothian1–1FC Nordsjaelland15 Oct · home
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 51% · missed

Falkirk

W
Falkirk2–0Celtic1 Nov · home
Pick: Celtic 64% · missed
W
Aberdeen0–1Falkirk28 Oct · away
Pick: Aberdeen 58% · missed
W
Falkirk3–0Kilmarnock24 Oct · home
Pick: Falkirk 49% · hit
W
Hibernian1–2Falkirk17 Oct · away
Pick: Hibernian 61% · missed
L
Celtic2–1Falkirk29 Aug · away
Pick: Celtic 72% · hit

About this match

Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk meet in Premiership on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Heart Of Midlothian win 67.2%, draw 16.2%, Falkirk win 16.6%. The pick is Heart Of Midlothian win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.9%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.