ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niedersachsen Germany Niedersachsen - 14 2026

Hemmingen vs Lüneburger SK Hansa

Hemmingen Home · Elo 1,478
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lüneburger SK Hansa Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lüneburger SK Hansa win
Hemmingen win
19.4%
Draw
15.2%
Lüneburger SK Hansa winPick
65.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.6%
No35.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.6%
Under 2.524.4%

How much we know

Hemmingen history3 matches
Lüneburger SK Hansa history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Lüneburger SK Hansa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lüneburger SK Hansa are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,518 against 1,478. On rating alone Lüneburger SK Hansa would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Lüneburger SK Hansa score more

    1.33 goals a game over 3 matches for Hemmingen, against 1.57 over 35 for Lüneburger SK Hansa.

  • Lüneburger SK Hansa concede fewer

    Hemmingen concede 3.67 a game, Lüneburger SK Hansa 1.54.

  • Hemmingen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Hemmingen matches, against 60% for Lüneburger SK Hansa. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hemmingen
Lüneburger SK Hansa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.8
ELO
1517.6
3
ELO · Matches
35
1477.8
Current Team ELO
1517.6
1517.6
Current Opponent ELO
1477.8
-39.79
Current ELO Difference
39.79
0.44
Expected score
0.56
3
History Matches
35
-0.34
Residual Mean
0.03
45.56
Overperformance
52.11
-0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
0.33
PPG
1.40
1.33
Goals for per game
2.20
3.67
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3
Matches
10
0.33
PPG
2.00
1.33
Goals for per game
2.20
3.67
Goals against per game
1.30
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
3.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
35
0.33
PPG
1.46
0.0%
Win rate
37.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
34.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
28.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
16
0.00
PPG
1.19
0.0%
Win rate
31.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
2
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.57
66.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
65.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.31
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
68.8%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
35
1.33
Goals Mean
1.57
0.94
Goals Std
1.15
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
48.6%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.67
Goals against per game
1.54
100.0%
Conceding rate
82.9%
4.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
93.8%
3.67
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
35
3.67
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.70
Conceded Std
1.34
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
66.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
4.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
35
0.58
Result entropy
0.99
1.70
Goal Difference Std
2.13
42.06
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
33
0
Lead Matches
12
—
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.75
2
Trailing Matches
7
50.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
1.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
2.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
1
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
3
Matches
2
0.33
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-39.79
PPG-1.12
GF-0.24
GA2.12
PPG-0.17
PPG-1.19
PPG-1.07
PPG-1.67
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate13.3%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate25.0%
History Matches-32
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate18.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean2.12
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate62.9%
Conceded 3+ rate49.5%
Venue Conceded Mean2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.69
History Matches-32
Result entropy-0.42
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score41.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-12
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate35.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.33
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.83
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.62
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-39.79
Current Opponent ELO39.79
Current ELO Difference-79.58
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-32
Residual Mean-0.37
Overperformance-6.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.49

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hemmingen

D
Hemmingen1–1Nordhorn1 Nov · home
Pick: Nordhorn 49% · missed
L
Wilhelmshaven3–2Hemmingen24 Oct · away
Pick: Wilhelmshaven 82% · hit
L
Hemmingen1–5Spelle-Venhaus18 Oct · home
Pick: Spelle-Venhaus 61% · hit
W
Drochtersen/Assel II1–2Hemmingen29 Aug · away
Pick: Drochtersen/Assel II 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lüneburger SK Hansa

L
Wilhelmshaven1–0Lüneburger SK Hansa1 Nov · away
Pick: Wilhelmshaven 61% · hit
L
BW Lohne3–1Lüneburger SK Hansa17 Oct · away
Pick: BW Lohne 54% · hit
D
Lüneburger SK Hansa2–2Germania Egestorf30 Aug · home
Pick: Lüneburger SK Hansa 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hemmingen and Lüneburger SK Hansa meet in Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hemmingen win 19.4%, draw 15.2%, Lüneburger SK Hansa win 65.4%. The pick is Lüneburger SK Hansa win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.6%. Both teams to score: 64.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.