ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Hertha BSC U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19

Hertha BSC U19 Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chemnitzer FC U19 Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hertha BSC U19 win
Hertha BSC U19 winPick
53.5%
Draw
19.2%
Chemnitzer FC U19 win
27.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes69.6%
No30.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.8%
Under 2.523.2%

How much we know

Hertha BSC U19 history42 matches
Chemnitzer FC U19 history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hertha BSC U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hertha BSC U19 are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,508. On rating alone Hertha BSC U19 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Hertha BSC U19 score more

    2.50 goals a game over 42 matches for Hertha BSC U19, against 2.03 over 39 for Chemnitzer FC U19.

  • Defences are close

    Hertha BSC U19 concede 1.98 a game, Chemnitzer FC U19 1.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    79% of Hertha BSC U19 matches, against 72% for Chemnitzer FC U19. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hertha BSC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.1
ELO
1507.6
42
ELO · Matches
39
1539.1
Current Team ELO
1507.6
1507.6
Current Opponent ELO
1539.1
31.50
Current ELO Difference
-31.50
0.55
Expected score
0.45
42
History Matches
39
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
53.13
Overperformance
50.90
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.00
3.00
Goals for per game
3.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
2.00
3.20
Goals for per game
3.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.30
2.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.41
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
39
1.64
PPG
1.33
52.4%
Win rate
41.0%
7.1%
Draw rate
10.3%
40.5%
Loss rate
48.7%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.8%
61.9%
Over 3.5 rate
56.4%
2.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
19
1.43
PPG
1.63
47.6%
Win rate
52.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
5.3%
52.4%
Loss rate
42.1%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
81.0%
Over 2.5 rate
84.2%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
63.2%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.78
21
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.50
Goals for per game
2.03
83.3%
Scoring rate
74.4%
71.4%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.52
Goals for per game
2.47
81.0%
Scoring rate
84.2%
71.4%
BTTS rate
57.9%
3.33
Goals for per game
4.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
39
2.50
Goals Mean
2.03
2.04
Goals Std
1.75
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.4%
64.3%
Scored 2+ rate
64.1%
40.5%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
2.52
Venue Goals Mean
2.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.98
Goals against per game
1.90
83.3%
Conceding rate
79.5%
2.19
Goals against per game
2.05
90.5%
Conceding rate
73.7%
0.67
Goals against per game
3.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
39
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.65
Conceded Std
1.32
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.1%
31.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
2.19
Venue Conceded Mean
2.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
39
0.81
Result entropy
0.86
2.81
Goal Difference Std
2.34
18.69
Stability score
13.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
39
16
Lead Matches
11
93.8%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.91
12
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
1.22
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
79.83
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
Current Competition Matches
1
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.10
Portability PPG Range
0.67
50.28
Portability Score
60.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.50
PPG0.31
GF0.47
GA0.08
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate9.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.2%
Scored 3+ rate9.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.47
Stability score5.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate2.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-9.72
Rest days-4.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO31.50
Current Opponent ELO-31.50
Current ELO Difference63.01
Expected score0.09
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hertha BSC U19

W
Hertha BSC U194–1Carl Zeiss Jena U191 Nov · home
Pick: Hertha BSC U19 57% · hit
W
Chemnitzer FC U190–5Hertha BSC U1927 Oct · away
Pick: Hertha BSC U19 54% · hit
W
Hertha BSC U192–0Eintracht Braunsch U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Hertha BSC U19 72% · hit
W
Paderborn U191–4Hertha BSC U1930 Aug · away
Pick: Paderborn U19 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chemnitzer FC U19

D
Chemnitzer FC U192–2Eintracht Braunsch U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Chemnitzer FC U19 67% · missed
L
Chemnitzer FC U190–5Hertha BSC U1927 Oct · home
Pick: Hertha BSC U19 54% · hit
L
Babelsberg U192–1Chemnitzer FC U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Chemnitzer FC U19 50% · missed
L
Chemnitzer FC U190–2Borussia M'bach U1930 Aug · home
Pick: Chemnitzer FC U19 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hertha BSC U19 and Chemnitzer FC U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hertha BSC U19 win 53.5%, draw 19.2%, Chemnitzer FC U19 win 27.3%. The pick is Hertha BSC U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.8%. Both teams to score: 69.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.