HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu
Match result probability Model pick: HJK Helsinki win
HJK Helsinki winPick
56.6%
Draw
21.6%
AC Oulu win
21.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.5%
No41.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%
How much we know
HJK Helsinki history87 matches
AC Oulu history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours HJK Helsinki
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why HJK Helsinki are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
HJK Helsinki are rated 62 Elo points higher
Elo 1,612 against 1,550. On rating alone HJK Helsinki would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
HJK Helsinki score more
2.16 goals a game over 87 matches for HJK Helsinki, against 1.58 over 69 for AC Oulu.
-
Defences are close
HJK Helsinki concede 1.37 a game, AC Oulu 1.49.
-
HJK Helsinki games more often go over 2.5 goals
70% of HJK Helsinki matches, against 61% for AC Oulu. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AC Oulu@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1612.3
ELO
1550.2
87
ELO · Matches
69
1612.3
Current Team ELO
1550.2
1550.2
Current Opponent ELO
1612.3
62.11
Current ELO Difference
-62.11
0.59
Expected score
0.41
87
History Matches
69
0.07
Residual Mean
0.03
55.80
Overperformance
52.59
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.10
1.80
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
87
Matches
69
1.69
PPG
1.41
50.6%
Win rate
42.0%
17.2%
Draw rate
14.5%
32.2%
Loss rate
43.5%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
70.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
49.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.7%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals 100
47
Matches
36
1.83
PPG
1.22
55.3%
Win rate
36.1%
17.0%
Draw rate
13.9%
27.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
72.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
53.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
47
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.16
Goals for per game
1.58
80.5%
Scoring rate
79.7%
55.2%
BTTS rate
59.4%
2.32
Goals for per game
1.61
85.1%
Scoring rate
80.6%
63.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.19
76.2%
Scoring rate
76.2%
38.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
87
History Matches
69
2.16
Goals Mean
1.58
1.92
Goals Std
1.36
80.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
56.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
39.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
2.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.49
71.3%
Conceding rate
76.8%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.61
76.6%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.19
61.9%
Conceding rate
61.9%
87
History Matches
69
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.21
Conceded Std
1.21
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
19.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
28.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
28.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
28.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
87
History Matches
69
0.92
Result entropy
0.92
2.42
Goal Difference Std
1.90
7.82
Stability score
8.40
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
86
Eligible Matches
69
36
Lead Matches
17
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.78
17
Trailing Matches
20
23.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
1.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.04
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.08
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
55
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals 170
21
Matches
21
1.62
PPG
1.57
47.6%
Win rate
47.6%
19.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.62
Current Competition PPG
1.57
0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
10
Competition Season Count
7
10
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.89
Portability PPG Std
0.60
3.00
Portability PPG Range
1.49
36.08
Portability Score
45.55
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
87
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO62.11
PPG0.28
GF0.58
GA-0.12
PPG0.05
PPG0.61
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.56
Scored 1+ rate0.7%
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate20.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.77
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches18
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.52
Stability score-0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate1.3%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate3.5%
Trailing Win Rate1.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.38
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range1.51
Portability Score-9.47
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.42
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO62.11
Current Opponent ELO-62.11
Current ELO Difference124.2
Expected score0.18
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
HJK Helsinki
W
VPS0–4HJK Helsinki2 Nov · away
Pick: VPS 43% · missed W
Inter Turku2–4HJK Helsinki29 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Turku 49% · missed D
HJK Helsinki2–2KuPS25 Oct · home
Pick: KuPS 42% · missed W
HJK Helsinki4–0Gnistan17 Oct · home
Pick: HJK Helsinki 52% · hit W
AC Oulu3–4HJK Helsinki12 Oct · away
Pick: HJK Helsinki 41% · hit AC Oulu
W
AC Oulu2–0KuPS1 Nov · home
Pick: KuPS 42% · missed D
AC Oulu0–0VPS28 Oct · home
Pick: VPS 38% · missed W
Gnistan3–4AC Oulu24 Oct · away
Pick: Gnistan 48% · missed W
Inter Turku1–2AC Oulu17 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Turku 52% · missed L
AC Oulu3–4HJK Helsinki12 Oct · home
Pick: HJK Helsinki 41% · hit About this match
HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu meet in Veikkausliiga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Bolt Arena, Helsinki. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: HJK Helsinki win 56.6%, draw 21.6%, AC Oulu win 21.8%. The pick is HJK Helsinki win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%. Both teams to score: 58.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.