Ho Chi Minh vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho
Ho Chi Minh
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Xuan Thien Phu Tho
Match result probability Model pick: Ho Chi Minh win
Ho Chi Minh winPick
66.0%
Draw
19.1%
Xuan Thien Phu Tho win
14.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.8%
No50.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%
How much we know
Ho Chi Minh history67 matches
Xuan Thien Phu Tho history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ho Chi Minh
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Ho Chi Minh are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ho Chi Minh are rated 40 Elo points higher
Elo 1,555 against 1,514. On rating alone Ho Chi Minh would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Xuan Thien Phu Tho score more
1.19 goals a game over 67 matches for Ho Chi Minh, against 1.55 over 20 for Xuan Thien Phu Tho.
-
Ho Chi Minh concede fewer
Ho Chi Minh concede 1.24 a game, Xuan Thien Phu Tho 1.45.
-
Xuan Thien Phu Tho games more often go over 2.5 goals
42% of Ho Chi Minh matches, against 55% for Xuan Thien Phu Tho. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ho Chi Minh
Xuan Thien Phu Tho
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1554.7
ELO
1514.5
67
ELO · Matches
20
1554.7
Current Team ELO
1514.5
1514.5
Current Opponent ELO
1554.7
40.19
Current ELO Difference
-40.19
0.56
Expected score
0.44
67
History Matches
20
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
52.85
Overperformance
51.78
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
0.90
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals 90
67
Matches
20
1.48
PPG
1.55
41.8%
Win rate
45.0%
22.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
35.8%
Loss rate
35.0%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
10
1.47
PPG
1.60
40.6%
Win rate
40.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
34.4%
Loss rate
20.0%
53.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
32
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.19
Goals for per game
1.55
70.1%
Scoring rate
85.0%
43.3%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.50
65.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
31.3%
BTTS rate
70.0%
67
History Matches
20
1.19
Goals Mean
1.55
1.12
Goals Std
1.12
70.1%
Scored 1+ rate
85.0%
29.9%
Scored 2+ rate
45.0%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.0%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.24
Goals against per game
1.45
65.7%
Conceding rate
65.0%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.50
53.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
67
History Matches
20
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.22
Conceded Std
1.36
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
67
History Matches
20
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.95
2.84
Stability score
4.55
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
66
Eligible Matches
20
23
Lead Matches
7
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.76
20
Trailing Matches
5
30.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.99
Rest days
155.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
20
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.55
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
16
Long Rest History Matches
9
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.77
Portability PPG Std
—
2.07
Portability PPG Range
—
39.40
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
67
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO40.19
PPG-0.07
GF-0.36
GA-0.21
PPG-0.13
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches47
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate14.9%
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate26.9%
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches47
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches47
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.66
History Matches47
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.88
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate11.2%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches46
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-78.05
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.84
Current Team ELO40.19
Current Opponent ELO-40.19
Current ELO Difference80.38
Expected score0.12
History Matches47
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance1.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ho Chi Minh
L
Ho Chi Minh0–1Da Nang1 Nov · home
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 63% · missed W
Pho Hien0–1Ho Chi Minh1 Nov · away
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 50% · hit W
Ho Chi Minh2–1Binh Dinh28 Oct · home
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 66% · hit W
Phu Dong0–1Ho Chi Minh25 Oct · away
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 43% · hit D
Bóng đá Huế2–2Ho Chi Minh24 Oct · away
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 49% · missed Xuan Thien Phu Tho
L
Xuan Thien Phu Tho1–2Binh Duong31 Oct · home
Pick: Binh Duong 46% · hit D
Văn Hiến1–1Xuan Thien Phu Tho27 Oct · away
Pick: Văn Hiến 47% · missed L
Xuan Thien Phu Tho2–3Pho Hien22 Oct · home
Pick: Pho Hien 48% · hit L
Than Quang Ninh2–0Xuan Thien Phu Tho17 Oct · away
Pick: Xuan Thien Phu Tho 36% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Ho Chi Minh and Xuan Thien Phu Tho meet in V.League 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ho Chi Minh win 66.0%, draw 19.1%, Xuan Thien Phu Tho win 14.9%. The pick is Ho Chi Minh win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.