ScoreProb
1. Division Denmark Round 14 2026

Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad

Hvidovre Home · Elo 1,550
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aarhus Fremad Away · Elo 1,550
Hvidovre Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hvidovre win
Hvidovre winPick
40.6%
Draw
31.0%
Aarhus Fremad win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

Hvidovre history69 matches
Aarhus Fremad history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hvidovre are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,550 against 1,550. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Aarhus Fremad score more

    1.32 goals a game over 69 matches for Hvidovre, against 1.72 over 71 for Aarhus Fremad.

  • Aarhus Fremad concede fewer

    Hvidovre concede 1.36 a game, Aarhus Fremad 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Hvidovre matches, against 54% for Aarhus Fremad. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hvidovre
Aarhus Fremad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1549.5
ELO
1550.3
69
ELO · Matches
71
1549.5
Current Team ELO
1550.3
1550.3
Current Opponent ELO
1549.5
-0.76
Current ELO Difference
0.76
0.50
Expected score
0.50
69
History Matches
71
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.25
Overperformance
51.79
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
71
1.42
PPG
1.48
34.8%
Win rate
39.4%
37.7%
Draw rate
29.6%
27.5%
Loss rate
31.0%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.5%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
40
1.44
PPG
1.43
31.3%
Win rate
37.5%
50.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
18.8%
Loss rate
32.5%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
32
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.72
79.7%
Scoring rate
71.8%
63.8%
BTTS rate
46.5%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.48
78.1%
Scoring rate
67.5%
68.8%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
71
1.32
Goals Mean
1.72
0.97
Goals Std
1.67
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.8%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
43.7%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.6%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.10
76.8%
Conceding rate
63.4%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.08
78.1%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
71
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.36
Conceded Std
1.09
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
71
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.97
0.76
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
67
24
Lead Matches
25
54.2%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.85
18
Trailing Matches
12
38.9%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.06
Rest days
76.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
30
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
1.60
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.67
1.83
Portability PPG Range
2.00
44.43
Portability Score
42.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-0.76
PPG-0.06
GF-0.40
GA0.26
PPG0.60
PPG0.01
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.70
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score0.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate13.9%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score1.77
Rest days2.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO-0.76
Current Opponent ELO0.76
Current ELO Difference-1.51
Expected score0.00
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hvidovre

D
Esbjerg1–1Hvidovre31 Oct · away
Pick: Hvidovre 44% · missed
D
Hvidovre2–2HB Koge23 Oct · home
Pick: Hvidovre 61% · missed
W
Hvidovre1–0Hillerød18 Oct · home
Pick: Hvidovre 53% · hit
W
Hvidovre2–1FC Fredericia30 Aug · home
Pick: Hvidovre 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aarhus Fremad

W
Aarhus Fremad2–0Hillerød1 Nov · home
Pick: Aarhus Fremad 54% · hit
L
Aarhus Fremad0–3FC Copenhagen29 Oct · home
Pick: FC Copenhagen 51% · hit
D
Vejle0–0Aarhus Fremad24 Oct · away
Pick: Vejle 45% · missed
D
Aarhus Fremad0–0Esbjerg16 Oct · home
Pick: Aarhus Fremad 52% · missed
D
Aarhus Fremad0–0Vejle30 Aug · home
Pick: Aarhus Fremad 40% · missed

About this match

Hvidovre and Aarhus Fremad meet in 1. Division on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Hvidovre Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Hvidovre win 40.6%, draw 31.0%, Aarhus Fremad win 28.4%. The pick is Hvidovre win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.