ScoreProb
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification World Play-offs 2027

Iceland U21 vs Greece U21

Iceland U21 Home · Elo 1,512
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Greece U21 Away · Elo 1,533
Throttarvollur Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Greece U21 win
Iceland U21 win
22.0%
Draw
20.7%
Greece U21 winPick
57.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Iceland U21 history7 matches
Greece U21 history9 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,777 matches.

Why Greece U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,512 against 1,533. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Greece U21 score more

    2.00 goals a game over 7 matches for Iceland U21, against 2.56 over 9 for Greece U21.

  • Greece U21 concede fewer

    Iceland U21 concede 1.29 a game, Greece U21 0.78.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Iceland U21 matches, against 67% for Greece U21. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Iceland U21
Greece U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.8
ELO
1532.9
7
ELO · Matches
9
1511.8
Current Team ELO
1532.9
1532.9
Current Opponent ELO
1511.8
-21.12
Current ELO Difference
21.12
0.47
Expected score
0.53
7
History Matches
9
0.07
Residual Mean
0.19
51.85
Overperformance
55.94
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
7
Matches
9
1.57
PPG
2.11
2.00
Goals for per game
2.56
1.29
Goals against per game
0.78
42.9%
Win rate
66.7%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.56
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.77
1.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.78
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.77
1.67
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
9
1.57
PPG
2.11
42.9%
Win rate
66.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
11.1%
28.6%
Loss rate
22.2%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
2.50
66.7%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
3
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
2.56
85.7%
Scoring rate
88.9%
85.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
85.7%
BTTS rate
14.3%
7
History Matches
9
2.00
Goals Mean
2.56
1.85
Goals Std
1.77
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
55.6%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
55.6%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
0.78
85.7%
Conceding rate
44.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.29
Goals against per game
0.57
85.7%
Conceding rate
28.6%
7
History Matches
9
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.78
0.70
Conceded Std
0.92
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
71.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
9
0.98
Result entropy
0.77
1.67
Goal Difference Std
2.44
1.79
Stability score
22.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
9
2
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
2
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
1.22
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
226.8
Rest days
166.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
3
Long Rest History Matches
4
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
7
Matches
7
1.57
PPG
2.57
42.9%
Win rate
85.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
14.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.57
Current Competition PPG
2.57
0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.43
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
9
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-21.12
PPG-0.54
GF-0.56
GA0.51
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
PPG0.60
PPG-0.54
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.51
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.21
Goal Difference Std-0.77
Stability score-20.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.71
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days60.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-21.12
Current Opponent ELO21.12
Current ELO Difference-42.25
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-4.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Iceland U21

W
Faroe Islands U210–2Iceland U216 Oct · away
Pick: Iceland U21 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Greece U21

W
Northern Ireland U210–1Greece U216 Oct · away
Pick: Greece U21 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Iceland U21 and Greece U21 meet in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Throttarvollur. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Iceland U21 win 22.0%, draw 20.7%, Greece U21 win 57.4%. The pick is Greece U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.