Ilbirs vs Toktogul
What we said before kickoff Result: Toktogul win
Ilbirs winPick
45.2%
Draw
26.6%
Toktogul win Result
28.2%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickIlbirs win · 45.2%
What happenedToktogul win · we gave it 28.2%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.6%
What happenedOver · 7 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 54.3%
What happenedYes · 3–4
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Toktogul win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
28%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 3.5
on average A pick at 45% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
4'
Goal
Goal
50' 52'
Goal
Goal
61' Goal
81' 88'
Goal
90+1'
Goal
Both teams to score
Yes54.3%
No45.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
How much we know
Ilbirs history48 matches
Toktogul history21 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full time: 3–4Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.5 Nov · 03:19 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why Ilbirs are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Toktogul are rated 26 Elo points higher
Elo 1,482 against 1,456. On rating alone Toktogul would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.06 goals a game over 48 matches for Ilbirs, against 1.14 over 21 for Toktogul.
-
Defences are close
Ilbirs concede 1.69 a game, Toktogul 1.57.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
46% of Ilbirs matches, against 52% for Toktogul. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Toktogul@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1455.7
ELO
1481.8
48
ELO · Matches
21
1455.7
Current Team ELO
1481.8
1481.8
Current Opponent ELO
1455.7
-26.02
Current ELO Difference
26.02
0.46
Expected score
0.54
48
History Matches
21
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.04
47.13
Overperformance
48.00
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
21
0.96
PPG
1.24
20.8%
Win rate
38.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
9.5%
45.8%
Loss rate
52.4%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
10
1.16
PPG
1.00
24.0%
Win rate
30.0%
44.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
32.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
25
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.14
72.9%
Scoring rate
61.9%
58.3%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.24
Goals for per game
0.80
76.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.14
81.0%
Scoring rate
61.9%
61.9%
BTTS rate
52.4%
48
History Matches
21
1.06
Goals Mean
1.14
0.90
Goals Std
1.12
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
61.9%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.57
77.1%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
76.0%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.57
71.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
48
History Matches
21
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.42
Conceded Std
0.95
47.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.5%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
21
0.96
Result entropy
0.85
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.29
4.37
Stability score
15.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
20
14
Lead Matches
5
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.52
Lead Points Retention
0.67
17
Trailing Matches
9
23.5%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.92
Rest days
71.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
10
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
20
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
21
Matches
21
1.14
PPG
1.24
23.8%
Win rate
38.1%
42.9%
Draw rate
9.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
52.4%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.14
Current Competition PPG
1.24
-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.17
Portability PPG Std
—
0.34
Portability PPG Range
—
74.90
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
21
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-26.02
PPG-0.28
GF-0.08
GA0.12
PPG-0.10
PPG0.16
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches27
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate11.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches27
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.46
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate15.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.88
History Matches27
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.46
Stability score-10.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.48
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate12.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.14
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days5.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO-26.02
Current Opponent ELO26.02
Current ELO Difference-52.05
Expected score-0.07
History Matches27
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Match report
Ilbirs and Toktogul finished 3–4 in Premier League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Ilbirs win 45.2%, draw 26.6%, Toktogul win 28.2%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.