ScoreProb
Gamma Ethniki - Group 9 Greece Group 9 - 7 2026

Ilisiakos vs Ilioupoli

Ilisiakos Home · Elo 1,488
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ilioupoli Away · Elo 1,358
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ilisiakos win
Ilisiakos winPick
38.5%
Draw
30.5%
Ilioupoli win
30.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Ilisiakos history40 matches
Ilioupoli history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ilisiakos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ilisiakos are rated 130 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,358. On rating alone Ilisiakos would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Ilisiakos score far more

    1.28 goals a game over 40 matches for Ilisiakos, against 0.57 over 42 for Ilioupoli.

  • Ilisiakos concede fewer

    Ilisiakos concede 1.43 a game, Ilioupoli 1.74.

  • Ilisiakos games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Ilisiakos matches, against 33% for Ilioupoli. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ilisiakos
Ilioupoli
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.1
ELO
1358.3
40
ELO · Matches
42
1488.1
Current Team ELO
1358.3
1358.3
Current Opponent ELO
1488.1
129.8
Current ELO Difference
-129.8
0.68
Expected score
0.32
40
History Matches
42
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.17
49.16
Overperformance
38.74
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.50
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
0.70
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
42
1.18
PPG
0.57
32.5%
Win rate
14.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
47.5%
Loss rate
71.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
21
1.45
PPG
0.62
40.0%
Win rate
14.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
19.0%
35.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
23.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
20
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.28
Goals for per game
0.57
70.0%
Scoring rate
45.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.62
75.0%
Scoring rate
38.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
28.6%
40
History Matches
42
1.28
Goals Mean
0.57
1.10
Goals Std
0.73
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
45.2%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
9.5%
15.0%
Scored 3+ rate
2.4%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
0.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
1.74
70.0%
Conceding rate
88.1%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.76
60.0%
Conceding rate
90.5%
40
History Matches
42
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.24
Conceded Std
1.18
47.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.4%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.8%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
54.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
61.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
54.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
61.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
42
0.95
Result entropy
0.72
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.53
5.26
Stability score
27.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
42
11
Lead Matches
7
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
42.9%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.57
8
Trailing Matches
24
12.5%
Non-loss rate
4.2%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.26
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
214.0
Rest days
197.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
28
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.43
10
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.60
Portability PPG Range
0.71
62.54
Portability Score
63.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO129.8
PPG0.60
GF0.70
GA-0.31
PPG0.83
PPG2.20
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate30.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate24.8%
Scored 2+ rate30.5%
Scored 3+ rate12.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.22
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score-22.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate39.0%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score-0.56
Rest days16.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.57
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO129.8
Current Opponent ELO-129.8
Current ELO Difference259.6
Expected score0.36
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance10.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ilisiakos

L
Nea Ionia1–0Ilisiakos25 Oct · away
Pick: Nea Ionia 39% · hit
W
Ilisiakos1–0AE Mykonos18 Oct · home
Pick: Ilisiakos 42% · hit
W
Ilisiakos2–0Saronikos Anavyssou4 Oct · home
Pick: Ilisiakos 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ilioupoli

L
Ilioupoli0–1Asteras Magoula1 Nov · home
Pick: Ilioupoli 63% · missed
D
Pannaxiakos3–3Ilioupoli25 Oct · away
Pick: Pannaxiakos 37% · missed
W
Ilioupoli2–1Acharnaikos18 Oct · home
Pick: Ilioupoli 63% · hit
D
Ilioupoli1–1Asteras Varis4 Oct · home
Pick: Asteras Varis 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ilisiakos and Ilioupoli meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 9 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ilisiakos win 38.5%, draw 30.5%, Ilioupoli win 30.9%. The pick is Ilisiakos win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.