ScoreProb
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan Round 11 2026

Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt

Imisli FK Home · Elo 1,504
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sumqayıt Away · Elo 1,433
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Imisli FK win
Imisli FK winPick
46.7%
Draw
25.9%
Sumqayıt win
27.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.1%
Under 2.550.9%

How much we know

Imisli FK history52 matches
Sumqayıt history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Imisli FK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Imisli FK are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,504 against 1,433. On rating alone Imisli FK would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Sumqayıt score more

    0.98 goals a game over 52 matches for Imisli FK, against 1.14 over 58 for Sumqayıt.

  • Imisli FK concede fewer

    Imisli FK concede 1.12 a game, Sumqayıt 1.59.

  • Sumqayıt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Imisli FK matches, against 53% for Sumqayıt. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Imisli FK
Sumqayıt
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.3
ELO
1433.0
52
ELO · Matches
58
1504.3
Current Team ELO
1433.0
1433.0
Current Opponent ELO
1504.3
71.24
Current ELO Difference
-71.24
0.60
Expected score
0.40
52
History Matches
58
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.98
Overperformance
45.47
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
58
1.35
PPG
1.00
32.7%
Win rate
27.6%
36.5%
Draw rate
17.2%
30.8%
Loss rate
55.2%
55.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
32.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.4%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
31
1.20
PPG
1.00
24.0%
Win rate
29.0%
48.0%
Draw rate
12.9%
28.0%
Loss rate
58.1%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
24.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
25
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
1.14
57.7%
Scoring rate
62.1%
32.7%
BTTS rate
46.6%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.03
56.0%
Scoring rate
61.3%
36.0%
BTTS rate
45.2%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
58
0.98
Goals Mean
1.14
1.05
Goals Std
1.15
57.7%
Scored 1+ rate
62.1%
26.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
13.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.59
55.8%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.42
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
3.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
58
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.37
Conceded Std
1.25
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.3%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.1%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
58
1.00
Result entropy
0.90
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.75
0.23
Stability score
10.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
58
14
Lead Matches
10
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
23
30.0%
Non-loss rate
4.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.76
Rest days
83.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
0.50
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
4
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.00
57.29
Portability Score
54.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO71.24
PPG0.35
GF-0.16
GA-0.47
PPG0.50
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate21.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.3%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate21.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-9.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate25.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score2.40
Rest days-6.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO71.24
Current Opponent ELO-71.24
Current ELO Difference142.5
Expected score0.20
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Imisli FK

L
Kapaz1–0Imisli FK1 Nov · away
Pick: Imisli FK 41% · missed
W
Imisli FK4–1Qaradağ Lökbatan28 Oct · home
Pick: Imisli FK 57% · hit
W
Imisli FK2–1Şamaxı FK25 Oct · home
Pick: Imisli FK 39% · hit
W
Imisli FK1–0Turan18 Oct · home
Pick: Turan 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sumqayıt

D
Sumqayıt1–1Safa Baku2 Nov · home
Pick: Safa Baku 47% · missed
W
Kür-Araz0–11Sumqayıt27 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
L
Zira3–2Sumqayıt23 Oct · away
Pick: Zira 69% · hit
W
Sumqayıt2–1Araz16 Oct · home
Pick: Sumqayıt 43% · hit
L
Sumqayıt0–1Qarabag31 Aug · home
Pick: Qarabag 67% · hit

About this match

Imisli FK and Sumqayıt meet in Premyer Liqa on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Imisli FK win 46.7%, draw 25.9%, Sumqayıt win 27.4%. The pick is Imisli FK win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.1%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.