ScoreProb
Premyer Liqa Azerbaijan Round 11 2026

Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK

Sabah FA Home · Elo 1,704
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Şamaxı FK Away · Elo 1,492
Bank Respublika Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sabah FA win
Sabah FA winPick
72.4%
Draw
14.7%
Şamaxı FK win
12.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Sabah FA history78 matches
Şamaxı FK history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Sabah FA are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sabah FA are rated 212 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,704 against 1,492. On rating alone Sabah FA would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Sabah FA score far more

    1.88 goals a game over 78 matches for Sabah FA, against 0.91 over 55 for Şamaxı FK.

  • Sabah FA concede fewer

    Sabah FA concede 1.01 a game, Şamaxı FK 1.18.

  • Sabah FA games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Sabah FA matches, against 40% for Şamaxı FK. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sabah FA
Şamaxı FK
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1704.0
ELO
1492.4
78
ELO · Matches
55
1704.0
Current Team ELO
1492.4
1492.4
Current Opponent ELO
1704.0
211.6
Current ELO Difference
-211.6
0.77
Expected score
0.23
78
History Matches
55
0.12
Residual Mean
-0.01
59.92
Overperformance
49.45
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.90
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
55
1.91
PPG
1.22
53.8%
Win rate
30.9%
29.5%
Draw rate
29.1%
16.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
14.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
28
2.05
PPG
1.11
60.5%
Win rate
25.0%
23.7%
Draw rate
35.7%
15.8%
Loss rate
39.3%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
38
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
0.91
85.9%
Scoring rate
65.5%
60.3%
BTTS rate
43.6%
1.87
Goals for per game
0.86
81.6%
Scoring rate
67.9%
52.6%
BTTS rate
46.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
78
History Matches
55
1.88
Goals Mean
0.91
1.32
Goals Std
0.84
85.9%
Scored 1+ rate
65.5%
59.0%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
28.2%
Scored 3+ rate
5.5%
1.87
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.01
Goals against per game
1.18
67.9%
Conceding rate
65.5%
0.84
Goals against per game
1.18
63.2%
Conceding rate
64.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
78
History Matches
55
1.01
Conceded Mean
1.18
0.91
Conceded Std
1.15
25.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
0.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
14.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
14.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
55
0.90
Result entropy
0.99
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.51
9.70
Stability score
0.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
55
25
Lead Matches
10
76.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.77
13
Trailing Matches
14
61.5%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.86
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
54
Normal Rest History Matches
29
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
1
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
9
Competition Season Count
4
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.70
Portability PPG Range
1.10
48.08
Portability Score
49.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO211.6
PPG0.69
GF0.98
GA-0.17
PPG2.50
PPG0.95
PPG1.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches23
Goals Mean0.98
Goals Std0.48
Scored 1+ rate20.4%
Scored 2+ rate39.0%
Scored 3+ rate22.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches23
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches23
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score8.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate6.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate40.1%
Trailing Win Rate8.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-1.45
Rest days-2.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.90
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO211.6
Current Opponent ELO-211.6
Current ELO Difference423.2
Expected score0.54
History Matches23
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance10.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sabah FA

L
Turan3–2Sabah FA30 Oct · away
Pick: Sabah FA 55% · missed
D
Sabah FA0–0Qarabag25 Oct · home
Pick: Qarabag 36% · missed
L
Sabah FA1–2Borussia Dortmund20 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 43% · hit
W
Qabala0–4Sabah FA17 Oct · away
Pick: Sabah FA 66% · hit
W
Sabah FA2–0Slavia Praha13 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha 37% · missed

Şamaxı FK

L
Şamaxı FK2–3Neftchi Baku1 Nov · home
Pick: Neftchi Baku 58% · hit
W
Hypers Guba1–5Şamaxı FK28 Oct · away
Pick: Hypers Guba 35% · missed
L
Imisli FK2–1Şamaxı FK25 Oct · away
Pick: Imisli FK 39% · hit
W
Şamaxı FK3–2Safa Baku16 Oct · home
Pick: Safa Baku 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK meet in Premyer Liqa on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Bank Respublika Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sabah FA win 72.4%, draw 14.7%, Şamaxı FK win 12.9%. The pick is Sabah FA win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.