ScoreProb
Sergipano - 2 Brazil Round 4 2026

Independente Simão Dias vs Frei Paulistano

Independente Simão Dias Home · Elo 1,462
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Frei Paulistano Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Frei Paulistano win
Independente Simão Dias win
25.4%
Draw
23.2%
Frei Paulistano winPick
51.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Independente Simão Dias history8 matches
Frei Paulistano history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Frei Paulistano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Frei Paulistano are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,462. On rating alone Frei Paulistano would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Frei Paulistano score far more

    0.75 goals a game over 8 matches for Independente Simão Dias, against 2.71 over 7 for Frei Paulistano.

  • Frei Paulistano concede fewer

    Independente Simão Dias concede 2.00 a game, Frei Paulistano 1.14.

  • Frei Paulistano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Independente Simão Dias matches, against 71% for Frei Paulistano. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Nov 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Independente Simão Dias
Frei Paulistano@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.1
ELO
1521.0
8
ELO · Matches
7
1462.1
Current Team ELO
1521.0
1521.0
Current Opponent ELO
1462.1
-58.83
Current ELO Difference
58.83
0.42
Expected score
0.58
8
History Matches
7
-0.21
Residual Mean
0.14
43.92
Overperformance
53.55
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
3.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
8
Matches
7
0.63
PPG
1.86
0.75
Goals for per game
2.71
2.00
Goals against per game
1.14
12.5%
Win rate
57.1%
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.71
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.14
0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.99
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.87
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
8
Matches
7
0.63
PPG
1.86
12.5%
Win rate
57.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
62.5%
Loss rate
28.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
4
0.80
PPG
1.75
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
5
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.75
Goals for per game
2.71
37.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
37.5%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.50
40.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
8
History Matches
7
0.75
Goals Mean
2.71
1.30
Goals Std
1.83
37.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
12.5%
Scored 2+ rate
71.4%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
71.4%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
1.14
100.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
8
History Matches
7
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.71
Conceded Std
0.99
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
8
History Matches
7
0.82
Result entropy
0.87
1.64
Goal Difference Std
2.32
18.06
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
6
0
Lead Matches
3
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
0
33.3%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.83
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
372.0
Rest days
372.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
5
Normal Rest History Matches
5
0.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
8
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-58.83
PPG-1.23
GF-1.96
GA0.86
PPG-0.95
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.23
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate33.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Failed-to-score rate35.0%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-1.96
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.34
Scored 2+ rate-0.59
Scored 3+ rate-0.59
Venue Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.86
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate46.4%
Conceded 3+ rate10.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.68
Stability score5.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-3
Trailing Matches3
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean1.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Current Team ELO-58.83
Current Opponent ELO58.83
Current ELO Difference-117.7
Expected score-0.17
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.35
Overperformance-9.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Independente Simão Dias

L
Socorro Sport5–0Independente Simão Dias1 Nov · away
Pick: Socorro Sport 40% · hit
D
Independente Simão Dias1–1Estanciano29 Oct · home
Pick: Independente Simão Dias 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Frei Paulistano

W
Frei Paulistano5–0Barra SE1 Nov · home
Pick: Frei Paulistano 70% · hit
L
Maruinense2–1Frei Paulistano29 Oct · away
Pick: Frei Paulistano 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Independente Simão Dias and Frei Paulistano meet in Sergipano - 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Independente Simão Dias win 25.4%, draw 23.2%, Frei Paulistano win 51.4%. The pick is Frei Paulistano win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.