Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC
Match result probability Model pick: Independiente del Valle win
Independiente del Valle winPick
50.2%
Draw
27.8%
Delfin SC win
22.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.8%
No54.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%
How much we know
Independiente del Valle history88 matches
Delfin SC history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Independiente del Valle
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 23:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 00:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.
Why Independiente del Valle are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Independiente del Valle are rated 300 Elo points higher
Elo 1,740 against 1,440. On rating alone Independiente del Valle would be expected to take 85% of the points on offer.
-
Independiente del Valle score far more
1.92 goals a game over 88 matches for Independiente del Valle, against 0.77 over 60 for Delfin SC.
-
Independiente del Valle concede fewer
Independiente del Valle concede 0.93 a game, Delfin SC 1.30.
-
Independiente del Valle games more often go over 2.5 goals
53% of Independiente del Valle matches, against 33% for Delfin SC. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Delfin SC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1739.7
ELO
1439.9
88
ELO · Matches
60
1739.7
Current Team ELO
1439.9
1439.9
Current Opponent ELO
1739.7
299.8
Current ELO Difference
-299.8
0.85
Expected score
0.15
88
History Matches
60
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.05
60.39
Overperformance
46.17
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
0.90
0.70
Goals against per game
1.30
100.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.80
Overall performance9 signals 90
88
Matches
60
2.17
PPG
1.02
65.9%
Win rate
23.3%
19.3%
Draw rate
31.7%
14.8%
Loss rate
45.0%
80.7%
Over 1.5 rate
53.3%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
18.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
42
Matches
31
2.17
PPG
0.68
64.3%
Win rate
12.9%
23.8%
Draw rate
29.0%
11.9%
Loss rate
58.1%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
42
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.92
Goals for per game
0.77
88.6%
Scoring rate
53.3%
53.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.71
90.5%
Scoring rate
48.4%
52.4%
BTTS rate
38.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
88
History Matches
60
1.92
Goals Mean
0.77
1.30
Goals Std
0.82
88.6%
Scored 1+ rate
53.3%
56.8%
Scored 2+ rate
21.7%
30.7%
Scored 3+ rate
1.7%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.93
Goals against per game
1.30
61.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.81
59.5%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
88
History Matches
60
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.30
0.99
Conceded Std
1.45
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.6%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.6%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
88
History Matches
60
0.80
Result entropy
0.97
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.69
20.36
Stability score
3.24
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
88
Eligible Matches
60
46
Lead Matches
9
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
44.4%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.56
15
Trailing Matches
18
40.0%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.00
Rest days
74.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
55
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
18
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
9
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.02
1.24
Portability PPG Range
0.05
50.07
Portability Score
95.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
88
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO299.8
PPG1.15
GF1.15
GA-0.37
PPG0.00
PPG1.49
PPG2.80
PPG2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.42
History Matches28
Goals Mean1.15
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate35.3%
Scored 2+ rate35.2%
Scored 3+ rate29.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.73
History Matches28
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.47
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches28
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score17.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.50
Eligible Matches28
Lead Matches37
Lead Win Rate38.2%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate12.2%
Trailing Win Rate27.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches28
First Half Goals For Mean0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.48
Portability PPG Range1.20
Portability Score-45.56
Rest days1.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.03
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match1.20
Current Team ELO299.8
Current Opponent ELO-299.8
Current ELO Difference599.6
Expected score0.70
History Matches28
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance14.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Independiente del Valle
W
Independiente del Valle2–0LDU de Quito1 Nov · home
Pick: Independiente del Valle 54% · hit W
Delfin SC0–3Independiente del Valle29 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente del Valle 40% · hit D
Independiente del Valle2–2Universidad Catolica29 Aug · home
Pick: Independiente del Valle 57% · missed W
Independiente del Valle3–1Deportes Tolima26 Aug · home
Pick: Independiente del Valle 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Delfin SC
L
Delfin SC0–3Independiente del Valle29 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente del Valle 40% · hit L
Orense SC4–0Delfin SC24 Oct · away
Pick: Orense SC 48% · hit W
Delfin SC1–0Tecnico Universitario1 Sep · home
Pick: Delfin SC 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Independiente del Valle and Delfin SC meet in Copa Ecuador on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Independiente del Valle win 50.2%, draw 27.8%, Delfin SC win 22.1%. The pick is Independiente del Valle win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 45.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.