ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain Group 11 - 10 2026

Inter Ibiza vs Migjorn

Inter Ibiza Home · Elo 1,499
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Migjorn Away · Elo 1,423
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Inter Ibiza win
Inter Ibiza winPick
62.1%
Draw
22.0%
Migjorn win
16.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.2%
No53.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%

How much we know

Inter Ibiza history32 matches
Migjorn history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Inter Ibiza are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Inter Ibiza are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,423. On rating alone Inter Ibiza would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Inter Ibiza score far more

    1.25 goals a game over 32 matches for Inter Ibiza, against 0.63 over 16 for Migjorn.

  • Inter Ibiza concede fewer

    Inter Ibiza concede 1.31 a game, Migjorn 2.56.

  • Migjorn games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Inter Ibiza matches, against 63% for Migjorn. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Inter Ibiza
Migjorn
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.2
ELO
1423.3
32
ELO · Matches
16
1499.2
Current Team ELO
1423.3
1423.3
Current Opponent ELO
1499.2
75.98
Current ELO Difference
-75.98
0.61
Expected score
0.39
32
History Matches
16
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.23
49.93
Overperformance
39.94
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.50
1.30
Goals for per game
0.70
1.30
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
32
Matches
16
1.44
PPG
0.56
43.8%
Win rate
12.5%
12.5%
Draw rate
18.8%
43.8%
Loss rate
68.8%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
7
1.75
PPG
0.29
56.3%
Win rate
0.0%
6.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
37.5%
Loss rate
71.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
16
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
0.63
65.6%
Scoring rate
56.3%
37.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.29
68.8%
Scoring rate
28.6%
31.3%
BTTS rate
28.6%
32
History Matches
16
1.25
Goals Mean
0.63
1.06
Goals Std
0.60
65.6%
Scored 1+ rate
56.3%
46.9%
Scored 2+ rate
6.3%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
0.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
2.56
65.6%
Conceding rate
93.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.43
62.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
32
History Matches
16
1.31
Conceded Mean
2.56
1.29
Conceded Std
1.73
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
68.8%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
43.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
71.4%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
71.4%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
32
History Matches
16
0.90
Result entropy
0.76
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.16
10.50
Stability score
24.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
15
8
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.67
9
Trailing Matches
9
11.1%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.40
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
546.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
7
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
12
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
32
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO75.98
PPG0.88
GF0.63
GA-1.25
PPG1.46
PPG0.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate28.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate37.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.63
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate9.4%
Scored 2+ rate40.6%
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-1.25
Conceded Std-0.45
Clean-sheet rate28.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Conceded Mean-2.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches16
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-13.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.56
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-364.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match1.61
Current Team ELO75.98
Current Opponent ELO-75.98
Current ELO Difference152.0
Expected score0.22
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance9.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Inter Ibiza

L
Platges Calvià5–1Inter Ibiza31 Oct · away
Pick: Platges Calvià 54% · hit
D
Inter Ibiza1–1Binissalem24 Oct · home
Pick: Binissalem 38% · missed
D
PE Sant Jordi0–0Inter Ibiza4 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Ibiza 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Migjorn

L
Migjorn0–2Formentera1 Nov · home
Pick: Formentera 61% · hit
D
Andratx4–4Migjorn24 Oct · away
Pick: Andratx 67% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Inter Ibiza and Migjorn meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Inter Ibiza win 62.1%, draw 22.0%, Migjorn win 16.0%. The pick is Inter Ibiza win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 46.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.