ScoreProb
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 Greece Group 2 - 7 2026

Iraklis Therm. vs Poseidon Nea Michaniona

Iraklis Therm. Home · Elo 1,575
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Poseidon Nea Michaniona Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Iraklis Therm. win
Iraklis Therm. winPick
38.5%
Draw
25.3%
Poseidon Nea Michaniona win
36.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Iraklis Therm. history26 matches
Poseidon Nea Michaniona history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Iraklis Therm. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Iraklis Therm. are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,531. On rating alone Iraklis Therm. would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Poseidon Nea Michaniona score more

    1.42 goals a game over 26 matches for Iraklis Therm., against 1.66 over 38 for Poseidon Nea Michaniona.

  • Iraklis Therm. concede fewer

    Iraklis Therm. concede 0.73 a game, Poseidon Nea Michaniona 1.39.

  • Poseidon Nea Michaniona games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Iraklis Therm. matches, against 61% for Poseidon Nea Michaniona. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Iraklis Therm.
Poseidon Nea Michaniona@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1574.7
ELO
1531.3
26
ELO · Matches
38
1574.7
Current Team ELO
1531.3
1531.3
Current Opponent ELO
1574.7
43.33
Current ELO Difference
-43.33
0.56
Expected score
0.44
26
History Matches
38
0.14
Residual Mean
0.05
58.08
Overperformance
53.03
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.20
Goals against per game
2.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
0.50
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
38
1.85
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
42.1%
34.6%
Draw rate
23.7%
15.4%
Loss rate
34.2%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
7.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
18
1.77
PPG
1.11
46.2%
Win rate
27.8%
38.5%
Draw rate
27.8%
15.4%
Loss rate
44.4%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
13
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.42
Goals for per game
1.66
84.6%
Scoring rate
81.6%
46.2%
BTTS rate
68.4%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.33
84.6%
Scoring rate
72.2%
46.2%
BTTS rate
66.7%
26
History Matches
38
1.42
Goals Mean
1.66
1.01
Goals Std
1.30
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
28.9%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.73
Goals against per game
1.39
53.8%
Conceding rate
76.3%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.67
46.2%
Conceding rate
77.8%
26
History Matches
38
0.73
Conceded Mean
1.39
0.76
Conceded Std
1.27
19.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.8%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.8%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
38
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.77
8.82
Stability score
2.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
36
9
Lead Matches
11
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.94
4
Trailing Matches
7
50.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
214.0
Rest days
214.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
4
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.09
—
Portability PPG Range
0.18
—
Portability Score
85.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO43.33
PPG0.35
GF-0.23
GA-0.66
PPG0.66
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate31.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.66
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.03
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score6.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO43.33
Current Opponent ELO-43.33
Current ELO Difference86.66
Expected score0.12
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance5.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Iraklis Therm.

D
Makedonikos Neapolis0–0Iraklis Therm.1 Nov · away
Pick: Iraklis Therm. 47% · missed
D
Iraklis Therm.0–0Kilkisiakos24 Oct · home
Pick: Iraklis Therm. 44% · missed
W
Iraklis Therm.1–0Akrites Sykeon18 Oct · home
Pick: Iraklis Therm. 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Poseidon Nea Michaniona

W
Poseidon Nea Michaniona1–0Mpam1 Nov · home
Pick: Poseidon Nea Michaniona 68% · hit
L
Finikas Polichnis2–1Poseidon Nea Michaniona24 Oct · away
Pick: Poseidon Nea Michaniona 42% · missed
D
Makedonikos Neapolis2–2Poseidon Nea Michaniona18 Oct · away
Pick: Poseidon Nea Michaniona 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Iraklis Therm. and Poseidon Nea Michaniona meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Iraklis Therm. win 38.5%, draw 25.3%, Poseidon Nea Michaniona win 36.2%. The pick is Iraklis Therm. win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.