ScoreProb
2. Division Cyprus Round 7 2026

Iraklis Yerolakkou vs Digenis Morphou

Iraklis Yerolakkou Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Digenis Morphou Away · Elo 1,460
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Iraklis Yerolakkou win
Iraklis Yerolakkou winPick
39.4%
Draw
22.0%
Digenis Morphou win
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.1%
Under 2.545.9%

How much we know

Iraklis Yerolakkou history40 matches
Digenis Morphou history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Iraklis Yerolakkou are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Iraklis Yerolakkou are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,493 against 1,460. On rating alone Iraklis Yerolakkou would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Digenis Morphou score far more

    0.98 goals a game over 40 matches for Iraklis Yerolakkou, against 1.63 over 43 for Digenis Morphou.

  • Iraklis Yerolakkou concede fewer

    Iraklis Yerolakkou concede 0.98 a game, Digenis Morphou 1.58.

  • Digenis Morphou games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Iraklis Yerolakkou matches, against 63% for Digenis Morphou. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Digenis Morphou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.8
ELO
1459.8
40
ELO · Matches
43
1492.8
Current Team ELO
1459.8
1459.8
Current Opponent ELO
1492.8
32.99
Current ELO Difference
-32.99
0.55
Expected score
0.45
40
History Matches
43
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.35
Overperformance
46.94
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
43
1.35
PPG
1.26
32.5%
Win rate
34.9%
37.5%
Draw rate
20.9%
30.0%
Loss rate
44.2%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
32.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.8%
7.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.2%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
21
1.55
PPG
1.19
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
35.0%
Draw rate
19.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
47.6%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
20
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.63
60.0%
Scoring rate
74.4%
47.5%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.67
75.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
70.0%
BTTS rate
47.6%
40
History Matches
43
0.98
Goals Mean
1.63
1.01
Goals Std
1.38
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.4%
27.5%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.6%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
1.58
70.0%
Conceding rate
81.4%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.57
80.0%
Conceding rate
76.2%
40
History Matches
43
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.58
0.88
Conceded Std
1.19
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.2%
5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
43
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.26
Goal Difference Std
2.07
0.39
Stability score
3.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
43
8
Lead Matches
8
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
17
30.0%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.16
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
196.9
Rest days
196.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.18
78.77
Portability Score
84.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO32.99
PPG0.09
GF-0.65
GA-0.61
PPG0.36
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.65
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.61
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.80
Stability score-3.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate12.4%
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.09
Portability Score-6.11
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO32.99
Current Opponent ELO-32.99
Current ELO Difference65.97
Expected score0.09
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Iraklis Yerolakkou

L
AEL2–1Iraklis Yerolakkou3 Nov · away
Pick: AEL 56% · hit
L
Doxa4–1Iraklis Yerolakkou30 Oct · away
Pick: Doxa 42% · hit
L
Iraklis Yerolakkou0–1Enosis24 Oct · home
Pick: Iraklis Yerolakkou 49% · missed
D
Akritas0–0Iraklis Yerolakkou17 Oct · away
Pick: Akritas 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Digenis Morphou

D
Digenis Morphou0–0ASIL Lysi1 Nov · home
Pick: Digenis Morphou 38% · missed
L
Omonia Aradippou6–3Digenis Morphou28 Oct · away
Pick: Omonia Aradippou 59% · hit
L
Ayia Napa2–1Digenis Morphou24 Oct · away
Pick: Digenis Morphou 42% · missed
D
Digenis Morphou1–1Halkanoras18 Oct · home
Pick: Halkanoras 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Iraklis Yerolakkou and Digenis Morphou meet in 2. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Iraklis Yerolakkou win 39.4%, draw 22.0%, Digenis Morphou win 38.6%. The pick is Iraklis Yerolakkou win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.1%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.