ScoreProb
Liga Leumit Israel Round 13 2026

Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Acre

Ironi Modi'in Home · Elo 1,453
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hapoel Acre Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ironi Modi'in win
Ironi Modi'in winPick
52.2%
Draw
22.6%
Hapoel Acre win
25.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Ironi Modi'in history50 matches
Hapoel Acre history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ironi Modi'in are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,453 against 1,448. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 50 matches for Ironi Modi'in, against 1.11 over 57 for Hapoel Acre.

  • Defences are close

    Ironi Modi'in concede 1.22 a game, Hapoel Acre 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Ironi Modi'in matches, against 42% for Hapoel Acre. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ironi Modi'in
Hapoel Acre
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1453.4
ELO
1447.6
50
ELO · Matches
57
1453.4
Current Team ELO
1447.6
1447.6
Current Opponent ELO
1453.4
5.88
Current ELO Difference
-5.88
0.51
Expected score
0.49
50
History Matches
57
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.04
46.90
Overperformance
46.68
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
57
1.28
PPG
1.23
34.0%
Win rate
29.8%
26.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
36.8%
62.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
28
1.42
PPG
1.00
38.5%
Win rate
25.0%
26.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
26
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.11
64.0%
Scoring rate
68.4%
48.0%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.11
76.9%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.7%
BTTS rate
60.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
50
History Matches
57
1.18
Goals Mean
1.11
1.16
Goals Std
0.97
64.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.0%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.32
66.0%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.61
69.2%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
57
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.15
Conceded Std
1.16
38.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
57
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.52
1.37
Stability score
0.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
57
11
Lead Matches
13
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
61.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.64
14
Trailing Matches
16
14.3%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
30
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.80
Portability PPG Range
0.68
55.62
Portability Score
59.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO5.88
PPG0.05
GF0.07
GA-0.10
PPG1.50
PPG0.42
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate0.7%
Scored 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score1.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate20.3%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-3.78
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO5.88
Current Opponent ELO-5.88
Current ELO Difference11.76
Expected score0.02
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ironi Modi'in

L
Hapoel Kfar Shalem3–2Ironi Modi'in2 Nov · away
Pick: Hapoel Kfar Shalem 43% · hit
L
Ironi Modi'in0–6Maccabi Bnei Raina23 Oct · home
Pick: Ironi Modi'in 52% · missed
W
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa0–2Ironi Modi'in16 Oct · away
Pick: Ironi Modi'in 39% · hit
D
Ironi Modi'in1–1Maccabi Kiryat Gat30 Aug · home
Pick: Ironi Modi'in 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hapoel Acre

D
Hapoel Acre2–2Hapoel Rishon LeZion30 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 45% · missed
W
Hapoel Acre5–0Tira26 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Acre 51% · hit
L
Hapoel Acre0–1Hapoel Ra'anana23 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Ra'anana 38% · hit
L
Hapoel Kfar Shalem4–0Hapoel Acre19 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Kfar Shalem 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ironi Modi'in and Hapoel Acre meet in Liga Leumit on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Ironi Modi'in win 52.2%, draw 22.6%, Hapoel Acre win 25.1%. The pick is Ironi Modi'in win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.