ScoreProb
CONCACAF Nations League World Quarter-finals 2025

Jamaica vs Mexico

Jamaica Home · Elo 1,577
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mexico Away · Elo 1,583
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mexico win
Jamaica win
29.7%
Draw
34.4%
Mexico winPick
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%
No55.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.0%
Under 2.563.0%

How much we know

Jamaica history18 matches
Mexico history28 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Mexico are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,577 against 1,583. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.61 goals a game over 18 matches for Jamaica, against 1.57 over 28 for Mexico.

  • Jamaica concede fewer

    Jamaica concede 0.44 a game, Mexico 0.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    28% of Jamaica matches, against 36% for Mexico. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jamaica
Mexico
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1576.8
ELO
1582.7
18
ELO · Matches
28
1576.8
Current Team ELO
1582.7
1582.7
Current Opponent ELO
1576.8
-5.95
Current ELO Difference
5.95
0.49
Expected score
0.51
18
History Matches
28
0.23
Residual Mean
0.21
61.00
Overperformance
62.02
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
0.20
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.90
0.20
Goals against per game
0.50
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
18
Matches
28
2.17
PPG
2.07
61.1%
Win rate
60.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
5.6%
Loss rate
14.3%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
3.00
54.5%
Win rate
100.0%
36.4%
Draw rate
0.0%
9.1%
Loss rate
0.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
11
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.61
Goals for per game
1.57
83.3%
Scoring rate
82.1%
27.8%
BTTS rate
32.1%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.80
81.8%
Scoring rate
100.0%
36.4%
BTTS rate
0.0%
18
History Matches
28
1.61
Goals Mean
1.57
1.21
Goals Std
1.18
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.44
Goals against per game
0.75
33.3%
Conceding rate
35.7%
0.64
Goals against per game
0.00
45.5%
Conceding rate
0.0%
18
History Matches
28
0.44
Conceded Mean
0.75
0.68
Conceded Std
1.21
11.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
64.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
64.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
64.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
18
History Matches
28
0.75
Result entropy
0.84
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.65
24.66
Stability score
15.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
28
9
Lead Matches
11
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.88
3
Trailing Matches
3
66.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
156.0
Rest days
126.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
5
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.23
12
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.71
0.50
Portability PPG Range
1.73
70.63
Portability Score
41.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
18
Clean History Matches
28
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-5.95
PPG0.10
GF0.04
GA-0.31
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.45
Failed-to-score rate18.2%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate1.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.19
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.53
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score9.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.50
Portability PPG Range-1.23
Portability Score29.22
Rest days29.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.62
Current Team ELO-5.95
Current Opponent ELO5.95
Current ELO Difference-11.90
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance-1.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jamaica

D
Honduras1–1Jamaica6 Oct · away
Pick: Jamaica 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mexico

L
Mexico0–2Chile7 Oct · home
Pick: Mexico 69% · missed
L
USA3–0Mexico4 Oct · away
Pick: Mexico 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jamaica and Mexico meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Jamaica win 29.7%, draw 34.4%, Mexico win 35.9%. The pick is Mexico win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.0%. Both teams to score: 44.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.