ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain Group 14 - 10 2026

Jaraíz vs Jerez

Jaraíz Home · Elo 1,569
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jerez Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jaraíz win
Jaraíz winPick
57.4%
Draw
21.7%
Jerez win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%

How much we know

Jaraíz history54 matches
Jerez history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Jaraíz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jaraíz are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,495. On rating alone Jaraíz would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.54 goals a game over 54 matches for Jaraíz, against 1.63 over 49 for Jerez.

  • Jaraíz concede fewer

    Jaraíz concede 1.19 a game, Jerez 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Jaraíz matches, against 57% for Jerez. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jaraíz
Jerez
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1569.4
ELO
1495.4
54
ELO · Matches
49
1569.4
Current Team ELO
1495.4
1495.4
Current Opponent ELO
1569.4
74.03
Current ELO Difference
-74.03
0.60
Expected score
0.40
54
History Matches
49
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.08
Overperformance
49.50
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.80
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
49
1.65
PPG
1.35
44.4%
Win rate
32.7%
31.5%
Draw rate
36.7%
24.1%
Loss rate
30.6%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
49.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
25
1.86
PPG
1.16
51.7%
Win rate
28.0%
31.0%
Draw rate
32.0%
17.2%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
29
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.54
Goals for per game
1.63
83.3%
Scoring rate
75.5%
59.3%
BTTS rate
59.2%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.40
93.1%
Scoring rate
76.0%
58.6%
BTTS rate
52.0%
54
History Matches
49
1.54
Goals Mean
1.63
1.18
Goals Std
1.42
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
46.9%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
22.4%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.51
72.2%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.72
65.5%
Conceding rate
68.0%
54
History Matches
49
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.00
Conceded Std
1.31
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.9%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.78
2.87
Stability score
0.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
49
19
Lead Matches
14
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.74
16
Trailing Matches
16
37.5%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
168.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.13
Portability PPG Range
0.41
88.75
Portability Score
70.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO74.03
PPG0.30
GF-0.10
GA-0.33
PPG0.70
PPG1.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.83
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score2.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate2.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.29
Portability Score17.97
Rest days-14.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO74.03
Current Opponent ELO-74.03
Current ELO Difference148.1
Expected score0.21
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jaraíz

W
Jaraíz4–0Guadiana25 Oct · home
Pick: Jaraíz 70% · hit
L
Azuaga3–2Jaraíz18 Oct · away
Pick: Azuaga 37% · hit
L
Montijo2–0Jaraíz4 Oct · away
Pick: Jaraíz 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Jerez

D
Jerez1–1Atlético Pueblonuevo1 Nov · home
Pick: Jerez 40% · missed
L
Villanovense5–1Jerez25 Oct · away
Pick: Villanovense 55% · hit
D
Jerez0–0Plasencia21 Oct · home
Pick: Jerez 69% · missed
W
Jerez1–0Quintana17 Oct · home
Pick: Jerez 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jaraíz and Jerez meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jaraíz win 57.4%, draw 21.7%, Jerez win 21.0%. The pick is Jaraíz win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.