ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Jubilo Iwata vs Shonan Bellmare

Jubilo Iwata Home · Elo 1,511
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shonan Bellmare Away · Elo 1,501
Yamaha Stadium, Iwata Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jubilo Iwata win
Jubilo Iwata winPick
38.8%
Draw
27.4%
Shonan Bellmare win
33.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Jubilo Iwata history72 matches
Shonan Bellmare history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Jubilo Iwata are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,511 against 1,501. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Jubilo Iwata score more

    1.29 goals a game over 72 matches for Jubilo Iwata, against 1.11 over 72 for Shonan Bellmare.

  • Defences are close

    Jubilo Iwata concede 1.29 a game, Shonan Bellmare 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Jubilo Iwata matches, against 40% for Shonan Bellmare. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jubilo Iwata
Shonan Bellmare
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.0
ELO
1501.1
72
ELO · Matches
72
1511.0
Current Team ELO
1501.1
1501.1
Current Opponent ELO
1511.0
9.93
Current ELO Difference
-9.93
0.51
Expected score
0.49
72
History Matches
72
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.90
Overperformance
50.00
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.70
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
72
1.51
PPG
1.24
41.7%
Win rate
33.3%
26.4%
Draw rate
23.6%
31.9%
Loss rate
43.1%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.3%
26.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
37
1.58
PPG
1.11
44.7%
Win rate
29.7%
23.7%
Draw rate
21.6%
31.6%
Loss rate
48.6%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
39.5%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
38
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.11
79.2%
Scoring rate
69.4%
56.9%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.89
76.3%
Scoring rate
62.2%
44.7%
BTTS rate
43.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.22
78.3%
Scoring rate
82.6%
65.2%
BTTS rate
52.2%
72
History Matches
72
1.29
Goals Mean
1.11
1.06
Goals Std
1.11
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
23.6%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.31
72.2%
Conceding rate
73.6%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.43
63.2%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.35
Goals against per game
0.91
78.3%
Conceding rate
65.2%
72
History Matches
72
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.16
Conceded Std
1.17
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
72
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.59
1.61
Stability score
2.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
70
21
Lead Matches
18
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.74
19
Trailing Matches
24
42.1%
Non-loss rate
29.2%
21.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.79
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.83
44
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.17
PPG
1.57
26.1%
Win rate
43.5%
39.1%
Draw rate
26.1%
34.8%
Loss rate
30.4%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.57
-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.30
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.83
Portability PPG Range
1.02
59.57
Portability Score
53.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO9.93
PPG0.28
GF0.18
GA-0.01
PPG-0.39
PPG0.47
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate9.7%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate4.8%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate12.9%
Trailing Win Rate21.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.39
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.65
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score5.61
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO9.93
Current Opponent ELO-9.93
Current ELO Difference19.87
Expected score0.03
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jubilo Iwata

W
Fujieda MYFC1–2Jubilo Iwata3 Nov · away
Pick: Fujieda MYFC 43% · missed
W
Jubilo Iwata2–0Sagan Tosu31 Oct · home
Pick: Jubilo Iwata 37% · hit
D
Iwaki1–1Jubilo Iwata25 Oct · away
Pick: Iwaki 42% · missed
D
Jubilo Iwata0–0Oita Trinita21 Oct · home
Pick: Jubilo Iwata 42% · missed
D
Tegevajaro Miyazaki1–1Jubilo Iwata17 Oct · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 54% · missed

Shonan Bellmare

L
Shonan Bellmare0–1Sagan Tosu3 Nov · home
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 44% · missed
L
Consadole Sapporo1–0Shonan Bellmare31 Oct · away
Pick: Consadole Sapporo 41% · hit
W
Shonan Bellmare2–1Tochigi City25 Oct · home
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 51% · hit
D
Shonan Bellmare1–1Iwaki21 Oct · home
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 45% · missed
D
Kataller Toyama1–1Shonan Bellmare17 Oct · away
Pick: Kataller Toyama 51% · missed

About this match

Jubilo Iwata and Shonan Bellmare meet in J2 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Yamaha Stadium, Iwata. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jubilo Iwata win 38.8%, draw 27.4%, Shonan Bellmare win 33.8%. The pick is Jubilo Iwata win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.