ScoreProb
Thai League 2 Thailand Round 10 2026

Kanchanaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Kanchanaburi Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Away · Elo 1,430
Kanchanaburi Province Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kanchanaburi win
Kanchanaburi winPick
40.3%
Draw
26.9%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC win
32.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%

How much we know

Kanchanaburi history50 matches
Nakhon Ratchasima FC history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kanchanaburi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kanchanaburi are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,461 against 1,430. On rating alone Kanchanaburi would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Kanchanaburi score more

    1.32 goals a game over 50 matches for Kanchanaburi, against 0.87 over 47 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

  • Defences are close

    Kanchanaburi concede 1.56 a game, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.66.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Kanchanaburi matches, against 47% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kanchanaburi
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.1
ELO
1430.3
50
ELO · Matches
47
1461.1
Current Team ELO
1430.3
1430.3
Current Opponent ELO
1461.1
30.83
Current ELO Difference
-30.83
0.54
Expected score
0.46
50
History Matches
47
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.08
46.92
Overperformance
44.60
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
0.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
47
1.14
PPG
0.85
24.0%
Win rate
21.3%
42.0%
Draw rate
21.3%
34.0%
Loss rate
57.4%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.29
PPG
0.60
29.2%
Win rate
16.0%
41.7%
Draw rate
12.0%
29.2%
Loss rate
72.0%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.32
Goals for per game
0.87
72.0%
Scoring rate
57.4%
58.0%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.80
66.7%
Scoring rate
52.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.0%
50
History Matches
47
1.32
Goals Mean
0.87
1.16
Goals Std
0.96
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
57.4%
36.0%
Scored 2+ rate
21.3%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.4%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.56
Goals against per game
1.66
74.0%
Conceding rate
85.1%
1.29
Goals against per game
2.00
62.5%
Conceding rate
92.0%
50
History Matches
47
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.47
Conceded Std
1.34
46.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.9%
22.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.9%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.6%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.6%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
47
0.98
Result entropy
0.89
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.77
2.27
Stability score
11.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
47
14
Lead Matches
9
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.55
Lead Points Retention
0.67
18
Trailing Matches
13
38.9%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.1
Rest days
181.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
25
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.12
Portability PPG Range
1.36
47.27
Portability Score
45.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO30.83
PPG0.29
GF0.45
GA-0.10
PPG0.69
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate29.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate14.6%
Scored 2+ rate14.7%
Scored 3+ rate13.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches3
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score-8.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.50
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate23.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score2.14
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO30.83
Current Opponent ELO-30.83
Current ELO Difference61.65
Expected score0.09
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kanchanaburi

D
Esan Pattaya2–2Kanchanaburi1 Nov · away
Pick: Kanchanaburi 38% · missed
W
Kanchanaburi6–3Chainat25 Oct · home
Pick: Kanchanaburi 40% · hit
D
Muang Loei United1–1Kanchanaburi17 Oct · away
Pick: Kanchanaburi 39% · missed
W
Kanchanaburi1–0Police Tero13 Oct · home
Pick: Kanchanaburi 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

W
Nakhon Ratchasima FC4–1Songkhla31 Oct · home
Pick: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% · hit
W
Nakhon Ratchasima FC2–0Esan Pattaya25 Oct · home
Pick: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 41% · hit
W
Phrae United0–1Nakhon Ratchasima FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Phrae United 45% · missed
W
Nakhon Ratchasima FC3–2Muang Loei United13 Oct · home
Pick: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kanchanaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet in Thai League 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kanchanaburi win 40.3%, draw 26.9%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC win 32.8%. The pick is Kanchanaburi win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.