ScoreProb
NWSL Women United States Quarter-finals 2026

Kansas City W vs Angel City W

Kansas City W Home · Elo 1,556
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Angel City W Away · Elo 1,486
CPKC Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kansas City W win
Kansas City W winPick
49.3%
Draw
25.6%
Angel City W win
25.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Kansas City W history37 matches
Angel City W history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 9 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kansas City W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kansas City W are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,486. On rating alone Kansas City W would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Kansas City W score more

    1.62 goals a game over 37 matches for Kansas City W, against 1.28 over 40 for Angel City W.

  • Kansas City W concede fewer

    Kansas City W concede 1.00 a game, Angel City W 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Kansas City W matches, against 53% for Angel City W. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kansas City W
Angel City W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1556.4
ELO
1485.7
37
ELO · Matches
40
1556.4
Current Team ELO
1485.7
1485.7
Current Opponent ELO
1556.4
70.74
Current ELO Difference
-70.74
0.60
Expected score
0.40
37
History Matches
40
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
54.28
Overperformance
49.14
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
40
1.92
PPG
1.23
59.5%
Win rate
32.5%
13.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
27.0%
Loss rate
42.5%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
19
2.53
PPG
1.11
76.5%
Win rate
26.3%
23.5%
Draw rate
31.6%
0.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
17
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.28
81.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
45.9%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.32
100.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
70.6%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.29
75.0%
Scoring rate
82.4%
55.0%
BTTS rate
64.7%
37
History Matches
40
1.62
Goals Mean
1.28
1.24
Goals Std
0.97
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
48.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.5%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
7.5%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.38
64.9%
Conceding rate
77.5%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.42
70.6%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.06
80.0%
Conceding rate
70.6%
37
History Matches
40
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.38
0.99
Conceded Std
1.02
24.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
40
0.85
Result entropy
0.98
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.39
15.06
Stability score
2.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
40
13
Lead Matches
8
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.58
11
Trailing Matches
8
36.4%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.77
Rest days
75.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
17
1.40
PPG
1.35
40.0%
Win rate
35.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
35.3%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
20
Current Competition Matches
17
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.35
0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.24
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.11
1.29
Portability PPG Range
0.22
43.72
Portability Score
81.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO70.74
PPG0.69
GF0.35
GA-0.38
PPG0.05
PPG1.42
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate6.1%
Scored 3+ rate14.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.86
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.49
Stability score12.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.81
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate42.3%
Lead Points Retention0.37
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate23.9%
Trailing Win Rate5.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.14
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.53
Portability PPG Range1.06
Portability Score-38.08
Rest days1.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.67
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.62
Current Team ELO70.74
Current Opponent ELO-70.74
Current ELO Difference141.5
Expected score0.20
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kansas City W

W
Racing Louisville W0–2Kansas City W1 Nov · away
Pick: Racing Louisville W 42% · missed
W
Kansas City W2–1Washington Spirit W25 Oct · home
Pick: Washington Spirit W 41% · missed
W
Utah Royals W0–2Kansas City W17 Oct · away
Pick: Utah Royals W 46% · missed
W
Kansas City W3–2North Carolina Courage W29 Aug · home
Pick: Kansas City W 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Angel City W

W
Angel City W4–1Boston Legacy W1 Nov · home
Pick: Angel City W 53% · hit
W
Angel City W2–0Bay FC W25 Oct · home
Pick: Angel City W 55% · hit
W
Denver Summit W2–3Angel City W18 Oct · away
Pick: Angel City W 38% · hit
D
NJ/NY Gotham FC W1–1Angel City W4 Oct · away
Pick: NJ/NY Gotham FC W 62% · missed
W
Boston Legacy W2–5Angel City W1 Sep · away
Pick: Angel City W 40% · hit

About this match

Kansas City W and Angel City W meet in NWSL Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at CPKC Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Kansas City W win 49.3%, draw 25.6%, Angel City W win 25.1%. The pick is Kansas City W win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.