ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 1 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 1 - 10 2026

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK vs İnkılapspor

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK Home · Elo 1,557
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
İnkılapspor Away · Elo 1,478
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK winPick
51.2%
Draw
24.9%
İnkılapspor win
23.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.8%
Under 2.553.2%

How much we know

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK history34 matches
İnkılapspor history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Karadeniz Ereğli BSK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Karadeniz Ereğli BSK are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,557 against 1,478. On rating alone Karadeniz Ereğli BSK would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Karadeniz Ereğli BSK score far more

    1.35 goals a game over 34 matches for Karadeniz Ereğli BSK, against 0.77 over 31 for İnkılapspor.

  • Karadeniz Ereğli BSK concede fewer

    Karadeniz Ereğli BSK concede 1.03 a game, İnkılapspor 1.23.

  • Karadeniz Ereğli BSK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Karadeniz Ereğli BSK matches, against 26% for İnkılapspor. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 29 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
İnkılapspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1557.1
ELO
1478.4
34
ELO · Matches
31
1557.1
Current Team ELO
1478.4
1478.4
Current Opponent ELO
1557.1
78.71
Current ELO Difference
-78.71
0.61
Expected score
0.39
34
History Matches
31
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.03
55.20
Overperformance
48.10
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
31
1.76
PPG
1.13
50.0%
Win rate
22.6%
26.5%
Draw rate
45.2%
23.5%
Loss rate
32.3%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
25.8%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
15
1.88
PPG
1.07
52.9%
Win rate
20.0%
29.4%
Draw rate
46.7%
17.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
13.3%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.01
17
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
0.77
73.5%
Scoring rate
54.8%
44.1%
BTTS rate
41.9%
1.59
Goals for per game
0.73
76.5%
Scoring rate
60.0%
41.2%
BTTS rate
53.3%
34
History Matches
31
1.35
Goals Mean
0.77
1.23
Goals Std
0.83
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
54.8%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
19.4%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
3.2%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.03
Goals against per game
1.23
61.8%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.07
52.9%
Conceding rate
86.7%
34
History Matches
31
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.10
Conceded Std
1.38
23.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.0%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
31
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.74
5.44
Stability score
3.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
31
13
Lead Matches
8
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.83
6
Trailing Matches
9
16.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
192.9
Rest days
202.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
8
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO78.71
PPG0.64
GF0.58
GA-0.20
PPG0.82
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate33.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate18.7%
Scored 2+ rate18.9%
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score1.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate9.6%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-9.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.71
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO78.71
Current Opponent ELO-78.71
Current ELO Difference157.4
Expected score0.22
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK

D
Galata1–1Karadeniz Ereğli BSK1 Nov · away
Pick: Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 44% · missed
L
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK1–3Beykoz Anadolu24 Oct · home
Pick: Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 48% · missed
W
Orduspor 19671–2Karadeniz Ereğli BSK17 Oct · away
Pick: Orduspor 1967 44% · missed
L
Orduspor 19674–1Karadeniz Ereğli BSK8 Oct · away
Pick: Orduspor 1967 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

İnkılapspor

W
İnkılapspor3–2Kartal Bulvarspor31 Oct · home
Pick: Kartal Bulvarspor 41% · missed
L
Fatsa Belediyespor2–1İnkılapspor25 Oct · away
Pick: Fatsa Belediyespor 55% · hit
D
İnkılapspor1–1Gölcükspor17 Oct · home
Pick: İnkılapspor 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK and İnkılapspor meet in 3. Lig - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win 51.2%, draw 24.9%, İnkılapspor win 23.9%. The pick is Karadeniz Ereğli BSK win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.8%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.