ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hessen Germany Hessen - 17 2026

Kassel vs FC Gießen

Kassel Home · Elo 1,491
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Gießen Away · Elo 1,494
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Gießen win
Kassel win
34.0%
Draw
20.2%
FC Gießen winPick
45.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.1%
No34.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.5%
Under 2.527.5%

How much we know

Kassel history43 matches
FC Gießen history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Gießen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,491 against 1,494. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.88 goals a game over 43 matches for Kassel, against 1.75 over 64 for FC Gießen.

  • FC Gießen concede fewer

    Kassel concede 2.49 a game, FC Gießen 1.89.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of Kassel matches, against 67% for FC Gießen. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kassel
FC Gießen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.1
ELO
1494.0
43
ELO · Matches
64
1491.1
Current Team ELO
1494.0
1494.0
Current Opponent ELO
1491.1
-2.92
Current ELO Difference
2.92
0.50
Expected score
0.50
43
History Matches
64
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.81
Overperformance
49.39
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.60
2.50
Goals for per game
0.90
3.10
Goals against per game
2.90
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
3.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.90
2.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.39
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
64
1.21
PPG
1.47
32.6%
Win rate
43.8%
23.3%
Draw rate
15.6%
44.2%
Loss rate
40.6%
93.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
72.1%
Over 2.5 rate
67.2%
62.8%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
33
1.17
PPG
1.33
30.4%
Win rate
39.4%
26.1%
Draw rate
15.2%
43.5%
Loss rate
45.5%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
63.6%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
23
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
1.75
72.1%
Scoring rate
76.6%
69.8%
BTTS rate
57.8%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.70
69.6%
Scoring rate
75.8%
69.6%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
20.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
43
History Matches
64
1.88
Goals Mean
1.75
1.73
Goals Std
1.45
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
46.5%
Scored 2+ rate
48.4%
37.2%
Scored 3+ rate
31.3%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.49
Goals against per game
1.89
93.0%
Conceding rate
78.1%
2.52
Goals against per game
2.18
91.3%
Conceding rate
84.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
43
History Matches
64
2.49
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.77
Conceded Std
1.63
65.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.7%
37.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.3%
2.52
Venue Conceded Mean
2.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
7.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
80.0%
7.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
7.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
64
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
2.51
Goal Difference Std
2.40
3.02
Stability score
7.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
62
13
Lead Matches
20
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.77
17
Trailing Matches
25
23.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
26
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
15
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
0.60
-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.50
Portability PPG Range
1.40
66.79
Portability Score
46.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-2.92
PPG-0.26
GF0.13
GA0.60
PPG0.20
PPG-0.16
PPG0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate6.2%
History Matches-21
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches-21
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches-21
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-4.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate6.9%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate3.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.90
Portability Score20.04
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-2.92
Current Opponent ELO2.92
Current ELO Difference-5.84
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-21
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kassel

W
Rot-Weiß Walldorf1–2Kassel1 Nov · away
Pick: Rot-Weiß Walldorf 47% · missed
W
Eddersheim2–3Kassel18 Oct · away
Pick: Eddersheim 71% · missed
L
Kassel1–3Eintracht Stadtallendorf30 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 73% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Gießen

L
FC Gießen1–2Bayern Alzenau31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gießen 40% · missed
L
FC Gießen1–2Rot-Weiß Walldorf24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gießen 57% · missed
L
Eintracht Stadtallendorf5–0FC Gießen17 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 65% · hit
L
TuBa Pohlheim2–1FC Gießen4 Oct · away
Pick: TuBa Pohlheim 49% · hit
L
FC Gießen1–3Vfb Marburg29 Aug · home
Pick: Vfb Marburg 47% · hit

About this match

Kassel and FC Gießen meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Kassel win 34.0%, draw 20.2%, FC Gießen win 45.9%. The pick is FC Gießen win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.5%. Both teams to score: 65.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.