ScoreProb
Gamma Ethniki - Group 1 Greece Group 1 - 5 2026

Kavala vs Doxa Dramas

Kavala Home · Elo 1,478
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Doxa Dramas Away · Elo 1,569
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kavala win
Kavala winPick
37.7%
Draw
32.8%
Doxa Dramas win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%

How much we know

Kavala history42 matches
Doxa Dramas history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.

Why Kavala are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Doxa Dramas are rated 90 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,478. On rating alone Doxa Dramas would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Doxa Dramas score far more

    1.02 goals a game over 42 matches for Kavala, against 1.78 over 27 for Doxa Dramas.

  • Defences are close

    Kavala concede 1.19 a game, Doxa Dramas 1.22.

  • Doxa Dramas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Kavala matches, against 56% for Doxa Dramas. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kavala
Doxa Dramas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1478.4
ELO
1568.9
42
ELO · Matches
27
1478.4
Current Team ELO
1568.9
1568.9
Current Opponent ELO
1478.4
-90.47
Current ELO Difference
90.47
0.37
Expected score
0.63
42
History Matches
27
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.12
48.55
Overperformance
57.05
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
27
1.29
PPG
1.93
31.0%
Win rate
59.3%
35.7%
Draw rate
14.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.9%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
14
1.68
PPG
1.71
40.9%
Win rate
50.0%
45.5%
Draw rate
21.4%
13.6%
Loss rate
28.6%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
22
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.78
66.7%
Scoring rate
74.1%
42.9%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.07
86.4%
Scoring rate
57.1%
59.1%
BTTS rate
35.7%
42
History Matches
27
1.02
Goals Mean
1.78
1.01
Goals Std
1.50
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
26.2%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
4.8%
Scored 3+ rate
37.0%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.22
61.9%
Conceding rate
81.5%
0.86
Goals against per game
0.93
59.1%
Conceding rate
64.3%
42
History Matches
27
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.31
Conceded Std
0.74
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
27
1.00
Result entropy
0.86
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.45
0.15
Stability score
14.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
26
6
Lead Matches
8
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
8
28.6%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
37.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
196.0
Rest days
214.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
16
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.61
Portability PPG Std
—
1.49
Portability PPG Range
—
45.05
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-90.47
PPG-0.64
GF-0.75
GA-0.03
PPG-0.03
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.75
Goals Std-0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.32
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.58
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches15
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.31
Stability score-14.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.93
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.30
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-17.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-90.47
Current Opponent ELO90.47
Current ELO Difference-180.9
Expected score-0.25
History Matches15
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-8.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kavala

D
Doxa Neo Sidirochori0–0Kavala31 Oct · away
Pick: Doxa Neo Sidirochori 36% · missed
L
Kavala0–1Eleftheroupolis25 Oct · home
Pick: Kavala 58% · missed
W
Apollon Paralimniou1–3Kavala18 Oct · away
Pick: Apollon Paralimniou 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Doxa Dramas

W
Doxa Dramas3–2Doxa Neo Sidirochori25 Oct · home
Pick: Doxa Dramas 62% · hit
W
Eleftheroupolis0–4Doxa Dramas18 Oct · away
Pick: Doxa Dramas 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kavala and Doxa Dramas meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Kavala win 37.7%, draw 32.8%, Doxa Dramas win 29.5%. The pick is Kavala win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.7%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.