ScoreProb
Premier League Uganda Round 10 2026

KCCA vs Maroons

KCCA Home · Elo 1,606
LIVE · 86'
2–0
Half time 1–0
Wed 4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
Maroons Away · Elo 1,504
MTN Omondi Stadium Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: KCCA win
KCCA winPick
49.0%
Draw
28.7%
Maroons win
22.3%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Own goalD. Basoga
6'
Own goal
70'

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: KCCA win · 49.0%
Ahead: 2–0
Both teams to scorePick: No · 53.8%
Holding
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Under · 54.3%
Holding: 2 goals so far
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes46.2%
No53.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%

How much we know

KCCA history45 matches
Maroons history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why KCCA are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • KCCA are rated 102 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,606 against 1,504. On rating alone KCCA would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • KCCA score far more

    1.71 goals a game over 45 matches for KCCA, against 0.89 over 45 for Maroons.

  • KCCA concede fewer

    KCCA concede 0.80 a game, Maroons 0.89.

  • KCCA games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of KCCA matches, against 29% for Maroons. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
KCCA
Maroons
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1606.1
ELO
1504.2
45
ELO · Matches
45
1606.1
Current Team ELO
1504.2
1504.2
Current Opponent ELO
1606.1
101.9
Current ELO Difference
-101.9
0.64
Expected score
0.36
45
History Matches
45
0.12
Residual Mean
0.00
58.24
Overperformance
50.23
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
0.50
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
45
1.96
PPG
1.31
60.0%
Win rate
33.3%
15.6%
Draw rate
31.1%
24.4%
Loss rate
35.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
46.7%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
28.9%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
2.43
PPG
1.00
78.3%
Win rate
26.1%
8.7%
Draw rate
21.7%
13.0%
Loss rate
52.2%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
52.2%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
0.89
71.1%
Scoring rate
57.8%
37.8%
BTTS rate
28.9%
2.39
Goals for per game
0.83
87.0%
Scoring rate
56.5%
43.5%
BTTS rate
34.8%
45
History Matches
45
1.71
Goals Mean
0.89
1.56
Goals Std
0.99
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
57.8%
51.1%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.80
Goals against per game
0.89
57.8%
Conceding rate
55.6%
0.65
Goals against per game
1.22
52.2%
Conceding rate
73.9%
45
History Matches
45
0.80
Conceded Mean
0.89
0.88
Conceded Std
0.97
15.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.4%
4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.2%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.2%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
45
0.86
Result entropy
1.00
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.40
14.41
Stability score
0.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
45
20
Lead Matches
15
95.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.89
11
Trailing Matches
13
36.4%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
165.2
Rest days
165.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
2.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
19
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.13
75.00
Portability Score
88.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO101.9
PPG0.64
GF0.82
GA-0.09
PPG1.43
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate21.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.82
Goals Std0.56
Scored 1+ rate13.3%
Scored 2+ rate31.1%
Scored 3+ rate15.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.61
Stability score14.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate28.7%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-13.24
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.99
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO101.9
Current Opponent ELO-101.9
Current ELO Difference203.8
Expected score0.29
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

KCCA

W
Mbarara City1–3KCCA31 Oct · away
Pick: KCCA 45% · hit
W
Ntugasaze0–2KCCA13 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Maroons

D
Entebbe UPPC0–0Maroons28 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
W
Maroons4–1Kataka20 Oct · home
Pick: Maroons 65% · hit
W
Maroons3–0Lugazi7 Oct · home
Pick: Maroons 40% · hit
L
Maroons1–2URA30 Aug · home
Pick: Maroons 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

KCCA and Maroons meet in Premier League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at MTN Omondi Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: KCCA win 49.0%, draw 28.7%, Maroons win 22.3%. The pick is KCCA win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 46.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.