ScoreProb
Premier League Mongolia Round 13 2027

Khovd Western vs Ulaangom City

Khovd Western Home · Elo 1,481
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ulaangom City Away · Elo 1,416
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Khovd Western win
Khovd Western winPick
67.1%
Draw
12.5%
Ulaangom City win
20.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.6%
No32.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.9%
Under 2.520.1%

How much we know

Khovd Western history19 matches
Ulaangom City history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Khovd Western are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Khovd Western are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,481 against 1,416. On rating alone Khovd Western would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Khovd Western score more

    1.95 goals a game over 19 matches for Khovd Western, against 1.35 over 20 for Ulaangom City.

  • Khovd Western concede fewer

    Khovd Western concede 2.11 a game, Ulaangom City 5.85.

  • Ulaangom City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Khovd Western matches, against 95% for Ulaangom City. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Khovd Western
Ulaangom City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.0
ELO
1416.1
19
ELO · Matches
20
1481.0
Current Team ELO
1416.1
1416.1
Current Opponent ELO
1481.0
64.92
Current ELO Difference
-64.92
0.59
Expected score
0.41
19
History Matches
20
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.21
47.34
Overperformance
39.33
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
3.20
1.60
Goals against per game
4.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.10
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.50
Goals against per game
4.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.61
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.70
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
3.58
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
20
1.26
PPG
0.55
36.8%
Win rate
15.0%
15.8%
Draw rate
10.0%
47.4%
Loss rate
75.0%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
78.9%
Over 2.5 rate
95.0%
57.9%
Over 3.5 rate
95.0%
2.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
11
1.44
PPG
0.82
44.4%
Win rate
27.3%
11.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
44.4%
Loss rate
72.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.15
9
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.95
Goals for per game
1.35
73.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
57.9%
BTTS rate
70.0%
2.56
Goals for per game
1.45
100.0%
Scoring rate
63.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
63.6%
19
History Matches
20
1.95
Goals Mean
1.35
1.82
Goals Std
1.39
73.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
47.4%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
36.8%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.11
Goals against per game
5.85
73.7%
Conceding rate
95.0%
2.11
Goals against per game
5.64
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
19
History Matches
20
2.11
Conceded Mean
5.85
1.77
Conceded Std
3.12
57.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
95.0%
42.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
80.0%
2.11
Venue Conceded Mean
5.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
20
0.92
Result entropy
0.67
2.83
Goal Difference Std
4.06
7.77
Stability score
33.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
20
6
Lead Matches
2
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
14
11.1%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
1.05
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.55
1.26
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
3.30
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
123.9
Rest days
123.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
11
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.27
4
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO64.92
PPG0.71
GF0.60
GA-3.74
PPG0.63
PPG-0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.60
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate3.7%
Scored 2+ rate17.4%
Scored 3+ rate16.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-3.74
Conceded Std-1.34
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.37
Conceded 3+ rate-0.38
Venue Conceded Mean-3.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-3.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-2.55
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.26
Goal Difference Std-1.22
Stability score-25.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.62
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean-2.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.09
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO64.92
Current Opponent ELO-64.92
Current ELO Difference129.8
Expected score0.18
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance8.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Khovd Western

W
Khovd0–3Khovd Western1 Nov · away
Pick: Khovd Western 43% · hit
L
Khovd Western1–3Amtat FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Khovd Western 57% · missed
W
Amtat FC2–3Khovd Western19 Oct · away
Pick: Amtat FC 38% · missed
L
Ulaanbaatar8–0Khovd Western14 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 75% · hit
L
Central Stallions8–4Khovd Western4 Oct · away
Pick: Central Stallions 62% · hit

Ulaangom City

D
Ulaangom City1–1Amtat FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Ulaangom City 57% · missed
L
Erchim5–1Ulaangom City28 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaangom City 49% · missed
L
Amtat FC4–2Ulaangom City15 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaangom City 45% · missed
L
Ulaanbaatar8–0Ulaangom City5 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 86% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Khovd Western and Ulaangom City meet in Premier League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Khovd Western win 67.1%, draw 12.5%, Ulaangom City win 20.5%. The pick is Khovd Western win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.9%. Both teams to score: 67.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.