ScoreProb
Kvindeliga Denmark Round 14 2026

Køge W vs AGF W

Køge W Home · Elo 1,660
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
AGF W Away · Elo 1,422
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Køge W win
Køge W winPick
85.5%
Draw
9.4%
AGF W win
5.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes33.1%
No66.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.9%
Under 2.526.1%

How much we know

Køge W history39 matches
AGF W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (85.5%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Køge W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Køge W are rated 238 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,660 against 1,422. On rating alone Køge W would be expected to take 80% of the points on offer.

  • Køge W score far more

    2.18 goals a game over 39 matches for Køge W, against 1.06 over 34 for AGF W.

  • Køge W concede fewer

    Køge W concede 0.85 a game, AGF W 1.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Køge W matches, against 65% for AGF W. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Køge W
AGF W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1660.1
ELO
1422.0
39
ELO · Matches
34
1660.1
Current Team ELO
1422.0
1422.0
Current Opponent ELO
1660.1
238.1
Current ELO Difference
-238.1
0.80
Expected score
0.20
39
History Matches
34
0.20
Residual Mean
-0.11
63.14
Overperformance
43.23
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
0.00
3.00
Goals for per game
0.20
0.60
Goals against per game
3.20
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.70
PPG
0.10
2.50
Goals for per game
0.30
0.50
Goals against per game
2.40
90.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
34
2.36
PPG
0.94
74.4%
Win rate
26.5%
12.8%
Draw rate
14.7%
12.8%
Loss rate
58.8%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
16
2.47
PPG
0.69
78.9%
Win rate
18.8%
10.5%
Draw rate
12.5%
10.5%
Loss rate
68.8%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
19
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.18
Goals for per game
1.06
89.7%
Scoring rate
55.9%
51.3%
BTTS rate
44.1%
2.26
Goals for per game
0.81
84.2%
Scoring rate
56.3%
52.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
39
History Matches
34
2.18
Goals Mean
1.06
1.30
Goals Std
1.35
89.7%
Scored 1+ rate
55.9%
69.2%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
41.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
2.26
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.74
59.0%
Conceding rate
82.4%
0.79
Goals against per game
2.00
63.2%
Conceding rate
87.5%
0.25
Goals against per game
3.25
25.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
34
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.74
0.98
Conceded Std
1.22
17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.4%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
44.1%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
44.1%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
34
0.68
Result entropy
0.86
1.61
Goal Difference Std
2.14
32.01
Stability score
13.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
34
22
Lead Matches
6
95.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.72
4
Trailing Matches
16
50.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.79
Rest days
79.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.14
57.14
Portability Score
50.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO238.1
PPG1.42
GF1.12
GA-0.89
PPG3.00
PPG1.79
PPG3.00
PPG2.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate23.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate24.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches5
Goals Mean1.12
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate33.9%
Scored 2+ rate42.8%
Scored 3+ rate29.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.75
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.89
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate23.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.35
Conceded 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Conceded Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score18.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate28.8%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate37.5%
Trailing Win Rate43.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean5.75
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score6.43
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.82
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.88
Current Team ELO238.1
Current Opponent ELO-238.1
Current ELO Difference476.1
Expected score0.59
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.31
Overperformance19.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.59

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Køge W

W
Køge W2–1Fortuna Hjørring W1 Nov · home
Pick: Køge W 48% · hit
L
Køge W0–8Barcelona W29 Oct · home
Pick: Barcelona W 52% · hit
W
KoldingQ W2–3Køge W24 Oct · away
Pick: Køge W 81% · hit
D
Køge W1–1Brøndby W20 Oct · home
Pick: Køge W 64% · missed
D
Nordsjælland W2–2Køge W4 Oct · away
Pick: Køge W 42% · missed

AGF W

L
AGF W0–2Midtjylland W3 Nov · home
Pick: Midtjylland W 55% · hit
L
Nordsjælland W5–0AGF W27 Oct · away
Pick: Nordsjælland W 78% · hit
L
AGF W1–3ASA Aarhus W17 Oct · home
Pick: ASA Aarhus W 47% · hit
L
AGF W0–2Køge W29 Aug · home
Pick: Køge W 74% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Køge W and AGF W meet in Kvindeliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Køge W win 85.5%, draw 9.4%, AGF W win 5.1%. The pick is Køge W win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.9%. Both teams to score: 33.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.