ScoreProb
Serie A Women Italy Round 6 2026

Lazio W vs Napoli W

Lazio W Home · Elo 1,537
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Napoli W Away · Elo 1,480
Campo Mirko Fersini, Rome Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lazio W win
Lazio W winPick
41.7%
Draw
25.2%
Napoli W win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Lazio W history36 matches
Napoli W history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lazio W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lazio W are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,480. On rating alone Lazio W would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Lazio W score more

    1.78 goals a game over 36 matches for Lazio W, against 1.27 over 37 for Napoli W.

  • Lazio W concede fewer

    Lazio W concede 1.28 a game, Napoli W 1.46.

  • Lazio W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Lazio W matches, against 54% for Napoli W. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lazio W
Napoli W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.8
ELO
1479.6
36
ELO · Matches
37
1536.8
Current Team ELO
1479.6
1479.6
Current Opponent ELO
1536.8
57.24
Current ELO Difference
-57.24
0.58
Expected score
0.42
36
History Matches
37
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.84
Overperformance
48.50
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
37
1.72
PPG
1.16
52.8%
Win rate
29.7%
13.9%
Draw rate
27.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
43.2%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
18
1.76
PPG
1.06
52.9%
Win rate
22.2%
17.6%
Draw rate
38.9%
29.4%
Loss rate
38.9%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
17
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.78
Goals for per game
1.27
72.2%
Scoring rate
67.6%
41.7%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.33
76.5%
Scoring rate
77.8%
41.2%
BTTS rate
72.2%
36
History Matches
37
1.78
Goals Mean
1.27
1.51
Goals Std
1.22
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.1%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.46
63.9%
Conceding rate
78.4%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.56
64.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
36
History Matches
37
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.33
Conceded Std
1.13
36.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.9%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
37
0.89
Result entropy
0.98
2.11
Goal Difference Std
1.49
11.01
Stability score
1.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
37
13
Lead Matches
9
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.70
10
Trailing Matches
9
20.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
21
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.73
50.00
Portability Score
62.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO57.24
PPG0.56
GF0.51
GA-0.18
PPG0.71
PPG1.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.51
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate4.7%
Scored 2+ rate20.4%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.63
Stability score9.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.59
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate17.9%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-12.50
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.60
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO57.24
Current Opponent ELO-57.24
Current ELO Difference114.5
Expected score0.16
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lazio W

L
Inter Milano W3–0Lazio W1 Nov · away
Pick: Inter Milano W 59% · hit
D
Lazio W0–0Como W25 Oct · home
Pick: Lazio W 46% · missed
L
Ternana W1–0Lazio W17 Oct · away
Pick: Lazio W 48% · missed
W
Lazio W2–0Parma W30 Aug · home
Pick: Lazio W 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Napoli W

L
Roma W2–1Napoli W1 Nov · away
Pick: Roma W 67% · hit
D
Napoli W0–0Inter Milano W24 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Milano W 48% · missed
W
Sassuolo W1–4Napoli W17 Oct · away
Pick: Napoli W 37% · hit
L
Napoli W1–2Como 1907 W4 Oct · home
Pick: Napoli W 68% · missed
L
Inter Milano W6–0Napoli W30 Aug · away
Pick: Inter Milano W 72% · hit

About this match

Lazio W and Napoli W meet in Serie A Women on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Campo Mirko Fersini, Rome. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lazio W win 41.7%, draw 25.2%, Napoli W win 33.1%. The pick is Lazio W win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.