ScoreProb
Serie A Women Italy Round 6 2026

Parma W vs Como W

Parma W Home · Elo 1,436
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Como W Away · Elo 1,497
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Como W win
Parma W win
23.9%
Draw
29.9%
Como W winPick
46.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.3%
No54.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.7%
Under 2.558.3%

How much we know

Parma W history24 matches
Como W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Como W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Como W are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,497 against 1,436. On rating alone Como W would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Como W score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 24 matches for Parma W, against 1.23 over 35 for Como W.

  • Defences are close

    Parma W concede 1.33 a game, Como W 1.26.

  • Como W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Parma W matches, against 46% for Como W. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Parma W
Como W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1436.3
ELO
1496.5
24
ELO · Matches
35
1436.3
Current Team ELO
1496.5
1496.5
Current Opponent ELO
1436.3
-60.24
Current ELO Difference
60.24
0.41
Expected score
0.59
24
History Matches
35
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.00
43.19
Overperformance
49.89
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
0.90
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
24
Matches
35
0.71
PPG
1.34
8.3%
Win rate
37.1%
45.8%
Draw rate
22.9%
45.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
54.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
17
0.92
PPG
1.65
15.4%
Win rate
47.1%
46.2%
Draw rate
23.5%
38.5%
Loss rate
29.4%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
13
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.67
Goals for per game
1.23
45.8%
Scoring rate
68.6%
41.7%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.35
69.2%
Scoring rate
70.6%
61.5%
BTTS rate
35.3%
24
History Matches
35
0.67
Goals Mean
1.23
0.85
Goals Std
1.10
45.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.6%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
4.2%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.26
70.8%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.06
76.9%
Conceding rate
52.9%
24
History Matches
35
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.25
Conceded Std
1.27
29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
29.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
54.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
54.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
24
History Matches
35
0.84
Result entropy
0.98
1.25
Goal Difference Std
1.63
16.06
Stability score
2.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
35
4
Lead Matches
12
25.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.42
Lead Points Retention
0.75
5
Trailing Matches
9
40.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.71
Rest days
77.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
9
Normal Rest History Matches
13
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.12
—
Portability PPG Range
0.24
—
Portability Score
80.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
24
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-60.24
PPG-0.63
GF-0.56
GA0.08
PPG-0.72
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate22.7%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score13.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate28.9%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.10
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-60.24
Current Opponent ELO60.24
Current ELO Difference-120.5
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-6.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Parma W

D
Sassuolo W0–0Parma W31 Oct · away
Pick: Sassuolo W 51% · missed
L
Parma W1–2Fiorentina W25 Oct · home
Pick: Fiorentina W 45% · hit
L
Inter Milano W3–0Parma W18 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Milano W 68% · hit
L
Lazio W2–0Parma W30 Aug · away
Pick: Lazio W 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Como W

W
Como W1–0AC Milan W1 Nov · home
Pick: Como W 41% · hit
D
Lazio W0–0Como W25 Oct · away
Pick: Lazio W 46% · missed
D
Como W1–1Fiorentina W17 Oct · home
Pick: Fiorentina W 40% · missed
L
Como W0–2Inter Milano W4 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Milano W 45% · hit
L
AC Milan W2–1Como W29 Aug · away
Pick: AC Milan W 50% · hit

About this match

Parma W and Como W meet in Serie A Women on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Parma W win 23.9%, draw 29.9%, Como W win 46.1%. The pick is Como W win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.7%. Both teams to score: 45.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.