ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 14 2026

Leganes vs Burgos

Leganes Home · Elo 1,488
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Burgos Away · Elo 1,579
Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leganes win
Leganes winPick
45.5%
Draw
28.5%
Burgos win
26.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.1%
Under 2.555.9%

How much we know

Leganes history77 matches
Burgos history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Leganes are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Burgos are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,579 against 1,488. On rating alone Burgos would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.09 goals a game over 77 matches for Leganes, against 1.16 over 74 for Burgos.

  • Burgos concede fewer

    Leganes concede 1.22 a game, Burgos 0.91.

  • Leganes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Leganes matches, against 36% for Burgos. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leganes
Burgos@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.9
ELO
1578.9
77
ELO · Matches
74
1487.9
Current Team ELO
1578.9
1578.9
Current Opponent ELO
1487.9
-91.03
Current ELO Difference
91.03
0.37
Expected score
0.63
77
History Matches
74
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.44
Overperformance
54.47
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.70
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
74
1.14
PPG
1.65
27.3%
Win rate
45.9%
32.5%
Draw rate
27.0%
40.3%
Loss rate
27.0%
66.2%
Over 1.5 rate
56.8%
46.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.5%
19.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.9%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
35
1.34
PPG
1.46
34.2%
Win rate
40.0%
31.6%
Draw rate
25.7%
34.2%
Loss rate
34.3%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
48.6%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
34.3%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
38
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.16
62.3%
Scoring rate
67.6%
46.8%
BTTS rate
40.5%
1.26
Goals for per game
0.91
65.8%
Scoring rate
60.0%
44.7%
BTTS rate
34.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
77
History Matches
74
1.09
Goals Mean
1.16
1.12
Goals Std
1.10
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
31.2%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
11.7%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
0.91
66.2%
Conceding rate
58.1%
1.11
Goals against per game
0.91
65.8%
Conceding rate
54.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
74
1.22
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.12
Conceded Std
0.92
37.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.0%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
0.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
74
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.35
1.16
Stability score
3.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
74
16
Lead Matches
18
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.83
21
Trailing Matches
11
9.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.19
Rest days
82.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
45
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.67
Portability PPG Range
1.08
66.03
Portability Score
57.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-91.03
PPG-0.51
GF-0.07
GA0.32
PPG0.50
PPG-0.12
PPG0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches3
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score-1.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score8.06
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Current Team ELO-91.03
Current Opponent ELO91.03
Current ELO Difference-182.1
Expected score-0.26
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-5.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leganes

L
Valladolid4–3Leganes2 Nov · away
Pick: Leganes 48% · missed
D
Leganes1–1Mallorca24 Oct · home
Pick: Leganes 50% · missed
L
Leganes0–1Cordoba16 Oct · home
Pick: Leganes 48% · missed
W
Leganes1–0Eldense29 Aug · home
Pick: Leganes 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Burgos

D
Burgos1–1Castellón1 Nov · home
Pick: Castellón 39% · missed
W
Laredo2–4Burgos29 Oct · away
Pick: Burgos 42% · hit
W
FC Andorra2–3Burgos26 Oct · away
Pick: FC Andorra 47% · missed
W
Burgos1–0Sabadell18 Oct · home
Pick: Burgos 37% · hit
L
Burgos0–1Granada CF12 Oct · home
Pick: Burgos 37% · missed

About this match

Leganes and Burgos meet in Segunda División on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Leganes win 45.5%, draw 28.5%, Burgos win 26.0%. The pick is Leganes win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.1%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.