ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Leioa vs Touring

Leioa Home · Elo 1,572
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Touring Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leioa win
Leioa winPick
48.2%
Draw
26.3%
Touring win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Leioa history58 matches
Touring history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 8 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Leioa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leioa are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,572 against 1,531. On rating alone Leioa would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Leioa score more

    1.41 goals a game over 58 matches for Leioa, against 1.25 over 51 for Touring.

  • Touring concede fewer

    Leioa concede 1.28 a game, Touring 1.04.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Leioa matches, against 43% for Touring. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leioa
Touring@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1571.8
ELO
1530.9
58
ELO · Matches
51
1571.8
Current Team ELO
1530.9
1530.9
Current Opponent ELO
1571.8
40.89
Current ELO Difference
-40.89
0.56
Expected score
0.44
58
History Matches
51
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
54.25
Overperformance
51.93
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
3.16
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
51
1.72
PPG
1.59
51.7%
Win rate
45.1%
17.2%
Draw rate
23.5%
31.0%
Loss rate
31.4%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
1.82
PPG
1.46
53.6%
Win rate
38.5%
21.4%
Draw rate
30.8%
25.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.41
Goals for per game
1.25
77.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.7%
BTTS rate
41.2%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.19
85.7%
Scoring rate
61.5%
64.3%
BTTS rate
38.5%
58
History Matches
51
1.41
Goals Mean
1.25
1.29
Goals Std
1.13
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.04
69.0%
Conceding rate
58.8%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.12
71.4%
Conceding rate
53.8%
58
History Matches
51
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.65
Conceded Std
1.08
27.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
51
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
2.18
Goal Difference Std
1.50
8.32
Stability score
3.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
51
24
Lead Matches
18
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.81
14
Trailing Matches
7
28.6%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
111.9
Rest days
84.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.31
83.03
Portability Score
76.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO40.89
PPG0.14
GF0.16
GA0.24
PPG0.36
PPG1.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.56
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std2.38
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.68
Stability score5.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.34
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score6.94
Rest days27.65
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO40.89
Current Opponent ELO-40.89
Current ELO Difference81.78
Expected score0.12
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leioa

W
Leioa3–0Sodupe24 Oct · home
Pick: Leioa 69% · hit
D
Deportivo Alavés III2–2Leioa17 Oct · away
Pick: Leioa 43% · missed
W
Amurrio Club0–5Leioa4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Touring

W
Erandio0–1Touring24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Leioa and Touring meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Leioa win 48.2%, draw 26.3%, Touring win 25.5%. The pick is Leioa win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.