Lekie W vs Mamelodi Sundowns W
What we said before kickoff Result: Mamelodi Sundowns W win
Lekie W winPick
50.0%
Draw
26.0%
Mamelodi Sundowns W win Result
24.1%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickLekie W win · 50.0%
What happenedMamelodi Sundowns W win · we gave it 24.1%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.9%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 53.4%
What happenedYes · 1–2
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Mamelodi Sundowns W win. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
24%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.2
on average A pick at 50% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
42'
GoalR. Tholakele · assist R. Donnelly
SubstitutionC. Meyong off · C. Voulania on
46' SubstitutionM. Nnanga off · T. S. Makoma on
64' Yellow cardL. Ngambe
66' 77'
SubstitutionN. Mthandi off · I. A. Ludwig on
77'
SubstitutionR. Tholakele off · L. Daweti on
78'
SubstitutionR. Donnelly off · M. Kgadiete on
GoalT. S. Makoma · assist A. Nchout
84' Yellow cardC. Voulania
86' SubstitutionA. Nchout off · M. Ngon on
86' SubstitutionN. Ndjock off · C. Achang on
86' Yellow cardC. Achang
87' 88'
Own goalI. Yakana
90+2'
SubstitutionS. Cesane off · O. Mokwena on
Both teams to score
Yes53.4%
No46.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
How much we know
Lekie W history0 matches
Mamelodi Sundowns W history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 3 h ahead30 Oct · 08:13 UTC
- Re-published 12 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–2Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Lekie W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mamelodi Sundowns W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Residual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
1500.0
ELO
1500.0
0
ELO · Matches
0
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
0.00
Current ELO Difference
0.00
0.50
Expected score
0.50
0
History Matches
0
Recent form16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGoals for per gameGoals against per gameWin ratePPGGoals for per gameGoals against per gameWin rateRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference Std
0
Matches
0
0
Matches
0
Overall performance9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
0
Venue performance10 signals 100
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
0
0
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rateGoals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rateGoals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals Mean
0
History Matches
0
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rateGoals against per gameConceding rateGoals against per gameConceding rateConceded MeanConceded StdConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded Mean
0
History Matches
0
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rate
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Result entropyGoal Difference StdStability score
0
History Matches
0
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Lead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win Rate
0
Eligible Matches
0
0
Lead Matches
0
0
Trailing Matches
0
Goal timing5 signals 50
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
First Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against Mean
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Rest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0
Long Rest History Matches
0
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
0
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
History Matches0
History Matches0
History Matches0
History Matches0
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Trailing Matches0
Halftime Coverage Matches0
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches0
Current Team ELO0.00
Current Opponent ELO0.00
Current ELO Difference0.00
Expected score0.00
History Matches0
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lekie W
No earlier results with our pick yet
Mamelodi Sundowns W
W
TS Galaxy W0–5Mamelodi Sundowns W25 Oct · away
Pick: TS Galaxy W 50% · missed D
Mamelodi Sundowns W0–0UWC W17 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns W 50% · missed W
Richmond United W0–8Mamelodi Sundowns W4 Oct · away
Pick: Richmond United W 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Lekie W and Mamelodi Sundowns W finished 1–2 in CAF Women's Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:13 UTC, before kickoff: Lekie W win 50.0%, draw 26.0%, Mamelodi Sundowns W win 24.1%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.