ScoreProb
2. liga Slovakia Round 16 2026

Liptovský Mikuláš vs MFK Bytča

Liptovský Mikuláš Home · Elo 1,592
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
MFK Bytča Away · Elo 1,588
Mestsky futbalovy stadion Milana Janeka, Liptovsky Mikulas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Liptovský Mikuláš win
Liptovský Mikuláš winPick
72.2%
Draw
12.6%
MFK Bytča win
15.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.5%
Under 2.527.5%

How much we know

Liptovský Mikuláš history70 matches
MFK Bytča history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Liptovský Mikuláš are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,592 against 1,588. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.03 goals a game over 70 matches for Liptovský Mikuláš, against 1.94 over 34 for MFK Bytča.

  • Defences are close

    Liptovský Mikuláš concede 1.47 a game, MFK Bytča 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Liptovský Mikuláš matches, against 71% for MFK Bytča. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Liptovský Mikuláš
MFK Bytča
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1592.2
ELO
1588.3
70
ELO · Matches
34
1592.2
Current Team ELO
1588.3
1588.3
Current Opponent ELO
1592.2
3.87
Current ELO Difference
-3.87
0.51
Expected score
0.49
70
History Matches
34
0.06
Residual Mean
0.12
54.84
Overperformance
57.70
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.79
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
34
1.61
PPG
2.03
44.3%
Win rate
61.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
17.6%
27.1%
Loss rate
20.6%
88.6%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
18
2.06
PPG
1.72
61.8%
Win rate
50.0%
20.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
17.6%
Loss rate
27.8%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.61
34
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.03
Goals for per game
1.94
88.6%
Scoring rate
76.5%
68.6%
BTTS rate
47.1%
2.15
Goals for per game
1.61
88.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
58.8%
BTTS rate
38.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
70
History Matches
34
2.03
Goals Mean
1.94
1.38
Goals Std
1.45
88.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
62.9%
Scored 2+ rate
67.6%
27.1%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
2.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.35
78.6%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.56
67.6%
Conceding rate
61.1%
0.80
Goals against per game
3.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
34
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.14
Conceded Std
1.51
45.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
34
0.98
Result entropy
0.85
1.86
Goal Difference Std
2.53
2.37
Stability score
15.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
34
29
Lead Matches
15
65.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
7
41.2%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.06
Rest days
79.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
43
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.17
22
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
0.60
1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.60
6
Competition Season Count
4
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.83
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.67
53.90
Portability Score
37.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO3.87
PPG-0.42
GF0.09
GA0.12
PPG1.00
PPG0.34
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches36
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches36
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate12.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches36
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.90
History Matches36
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.68
Stability score-13.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches36
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.34
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate26.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches36
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.80
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score16.44
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO3.87
Current Opponent ELO-3.87
Current ELO Difference7.74
Expected score0.01
History Matches36
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-2.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Liptovský Mikuláš

W
Liptovský Mikuláš3–2Žilina II30 Oct · home
Pick: Liptovský Mikuláš 59% · hit
L
Považská Bystrica2–1Liptovský Mikuláš24 Oct · away
Pick: Liptovský Mikuláš 48% · missed
W
Liptovský Mikuláš1–0Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom16 Oct · home
Pick: Liptovský Mikuláš 55% · hit
W
Liptovský Mikuláš2–0Šamorín5 Oct · home
Pick: Liptovský Mikuláš 48% · hit
L
Petržalka2–0Liptovský Mikuláš30 Aug · away
Pick: Petržalka 51% · hit

MFK Bytča

L
Lokomotíva Zvolen5–0MFK Bytča31 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotíva Zvolen 63% · hit
L
MFK Bytča0–3Tatran Prešov24 Oct · home
Pick: Tatran Prešov 51% · hit
L
Galanta2–1MFK Bytča17 Oct · away
Pick: Galanta 63% · hit
L
Malženice3–1MFK Bytča31 Aug · away
Pick: Malženice 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Liptovský Mikuláš and MFK Bytča meet in 2. liga on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Mestsky futbalovy stadion Milana Janeka, Liptovsky Mikulas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Liptovský Mikuláš win 72.2%, draw 12.6%, MFK Bytča win 15.2%. The pick is Liptovský Mikuláš win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.5%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.