ScoreProb
U19 League Ukraine Round 13 2026

Livyi Bereh U19 vs LNZ Cherkasy U19

Livyi Bereh U19 Home · Elo 1,487
Full time
1–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
LNZ Cherkasy U19 Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Livyi Bereh U19 win
Livyi Bereh U19 winPick Result
46.0%
Draw
26.8%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 win
27.2%

How our picks did

Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickLivyi Bereh U19 win · 46.0%
What happenedLivyi Bereh U19 win · we gave it 46.0%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 56.3%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 54.6%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Missed

How surprising was it?

Result: Livyi Bereh U19 win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

46%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.2
on average
A pick at 46% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

Livyi Bereh U19 history16 matches
LNZ Cherkasy U19 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 1–0One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.
    5 Nov · 03:19 UTC

Share this result

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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Livyi Bereh U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,487 against 1,490. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • LNZ Cherkasy U19 score more

    1.00 goals a game over 16 matches for Livyi Bereh U19, against 1.37 over 46 for LNZ Cherkasy U19.

  • Livyi Bereh U19 concede fewer

    Livyi Bereh U19 concede 1.56 a game, LNZ Cherkasy U19 2.04.

  • LNZ Cherkasy U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Livyi Bereh U19 matches, against 70% for LNZ Cherkasy U19. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Livyi Bereh U19
LNZ Cherkasy U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.4
ELO
1489.8
16
ELO · Matches
46
1487.4
Current Team ELO
1489.8
1489.8
Current Opponent ELO
1487.4
-2.45
Current ELO Difference
2.45
0.50
Expected score
0.50
16
History Matches
46
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.72
Overperformance
49.34
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
46
1.06
PPG
1.20
25.0%
Win rate
30.4%
31.3%
Draw rate
28.3%
43.8%
Loss rate
41.3%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.6%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
23
0.71
PPG
1.17
14.3%
Win rate
30.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
26.1%
57.1%
Loss rate
43.5%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
69.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.63
7
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.37
68.8%
Scoring rate
71.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
54.3%
0.71
Goals for per game
1.22
57.1%
Scoring rate
65.2%
42.9%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
16
History Matches
46
1.00
Goals Mean
1.37
0.79
Goals Std
1.19
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.2%
0.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.56
Goals against per game
2.04
75.0%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.57
Goals against per game
2.09
85.7%
Conceding rate
78.3%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
16
History Matches
46
1.56
Conceded Mean
2.04
1.32
Conceded Std
2.02
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.1%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
46
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.62
Goal Difference Std
2.74
2.45
Stability score
1.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
46
4
Lead Matches
16
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.75
5
Trailing Matches
19
40.0%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.26
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
9
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
6
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.56
Portability PPG Range
0.82
39.00
Portability Score
57.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.45
PPG-0.13
GF-0.37
GA-0.48
PPG1.00
PPG-0.46
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-30
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches-30
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.85
History Matches-30
Conceded Mean-0.48
Conceded Std-0.70
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches-30
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-1.12
Stability score1.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate8.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-18.85
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-17
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-2.45
Current Opponent ELO2.45
Current ELO Difference-4.90
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-30
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-1.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Livyi Bereh U19

L
Shakhtar Donetsk U195–1Livyi Bereh U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 61% · hit
W
Livyi Bereh U193–2SK Metalurh U1921 Oct · home
Pick: Livyi Bereh U19 62% · hit
W
Lviv U190–3Livyi Bereh U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Livyi Bereh U19 46% · hit
L
Oleksandria U193–1Livyi Bereh U197 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria U19 43% · hit
D
Livyi Bereh U191–1Veres Rivne U199 Sep · home
Pick: Livyi Bereh U19 38% · missed

LNZ Cherkasy U19

D
LNZ Cherkasy U192–2Oleksandria U1928 Oct · home
Pick: LNZ Cherkasy U19 45% · missed
W
LNZ Cherkasy U192–0Zhytomyr U1926 Aug · home
Pick: LNZ Cherkasy U19 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Livyi Bereh U19 and LNZ Cherkasy U19 finished 1–0 in U19 League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Livyi Bereh U19 win 46.0%, draw 26.8%, LNZ Cherkasy U19 win 27.2%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.