ScoreProb
Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany Schleswig-Holstein - 17 2026

Lübeck II vs Oldenburger SV

Lübeck II Home · Elo 1,482
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oldenburger SV Away · Elo 1,441
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oldenburger SV win
Lübeck II win
35.4%
Draw
17.0%
Oldenburger SV winPick
47.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.2%
No32.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.7%
Under 2.520.3%

How much we know

Lübeck II history17 matches
Oldenburger SV history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Oldenburger SV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lübeck II are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,482 against 1,441. On rating alone Lübeck II would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.00 goals a game over 17 matches for Lübeck II, against 1.96 over 45 for Oldenburger SV.

  • Lübeck II concede fewer

    Lübeck II concede 2.06 a game, Oldenburger SV 2.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    82% of Lübeck II matches, against 84% for Oldenburger SV. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lübeck II
Oldenburger SV@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.6
ELO
1441.2
17
ELO · Matches
45
1481.6
Current Team ELO
1441.2
1441.2
Current Opponent ELO
1481.6
40.44
Current ELO Difference
-40.44
0.56
Expected score
0.44
17
History Matches
45
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.07
47.30
Overperformance
45.15
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
3.60
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
1.90
Goals for per game
2.40
2.50
Goals against per game
2.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.90
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
17
Matches
45
1.24
PPG
1.02
35.3%
Win rate
26.7%
17.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
47.1%
Loss rate
51.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
82.4%
Over 2.5 rate
84.4%
64.7%
Over 3.5 rate
73.3%
2.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
24
1.75
PPG
0.79
50.0%
Win rate
20.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.8%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
91.7%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
3.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
8
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.96
70.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
52.9%
BTTS rate
73.3%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.96
87.5%
Scoring rate
79.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
79.2%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
17
History Matches
45
2.00
Goals Mean
1.96
1.78
Goals Std
1.58
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
64.7%
Scored 2+ rate
53.3%
35.3%
Scored 3+ rate
35.6%
2.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.06
Goals against per game
2.56
82.4%
Conceding rate
93.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.92
62.5%
Conceding rate
95.8%
3.60
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
17
History Matches
45
2.06
Conceded Mean
2.56
1.43
Conceded Std
1.53
58.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
77.8%
41.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.2%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
17
History Matches
45
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
2.88
Goal Difference Std
2.33
6.39
Stability score
6.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
45
5
Lead Matches
14
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.62
5
Trailing Matches
19
0.0%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.25
Rest days
82.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
9
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
7
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-2.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.95
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.91
Portability PPG Range
0.43
34.38
Portability Score
71.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
17
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO40.44
PPG0.21
GF0.04
GA-0.50
PPG-1.40
PPG0.96
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-28
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-28
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.55
Stability score0.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches-28
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-28
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.76
Portability PPG Range1.48
Portability Score-37.37
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO40.44
Current Opponent ELO-40.44
Current ELO Difference80.87
Expected score0.12
History Matches-28
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance2.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lübeck II

L
Phönix L. II3–2Lübeck II1 Nov · away
Pick: Phönix L. II 59% · hit
L
Heider SV3–1Lübeck II24 Oct · away
Pick: Heider SV 61% · hit
L
Lübeck II0–5SV Eichede18 Oct · home
Pick: SV Eichede 58% · hit
D
Kaltenkirchen2–2Lübeck II29 Aug · away
Pick: Kaltenkirchen 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oldenburger SV

L
Eckernförder SV2–0Oldenburger SV31 Oct · away
Pick: Oldenburger SV 54% · missed
D
Oldenburger SV2–2VfR Neumünster27 Oct · home
Pick: VfR Neumünster 61% · missed
L
Oldenburger SV4–5Hohenwestedt24 Oct · home
Pick: Oldenburger SV 45% · missed
D
Oldenburger SV2–2Phönix L. II16 Oct · home
Pick: Oldenburger SV 53% · missed
W
Oldenburger SV4–0Heider SV4 Oct · home
Pick: Oldenburger SV 50% · hit

About this match

Lübeck II and Oldenburger SV meet in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Lübeck II win 35.4%, draw 17.0%, Oldenburger SV win 47.6%. The pick is Oldenburger SV win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.7%. Both teams to score: 67.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.