Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Lucchese win
26.3%
Draw Result
24.1%
Sestri Levante winPick
49.7%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickSestri Levante win · 49.7%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 24.1%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 57.6%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 55.7%
What happenedYes · 1–1
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
24%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.2
on average A pick at 50% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
45'
GoalM. Jebbar
GoalF. Dionisi
90' Both teams to score
Yes55.7%
No44.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%
How much we know
Lucchese history16 matches
Sestri Levante history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full time: 1–1One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Sestri Levante are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,517 against 1,521. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.56 goals a game over 16 matches for Lucchese, against 1.44 over 52 for Sestri Levante.
-
Sestri Levante concede fewer
Lucchese concede 1.63 a game, Sestri Levante 1.10.
-
Lucchese games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Lucchese matches, against 46% for Sestri Levante. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sestri Levante@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1516.9
ELO
1521.4
16
ELO · Matches
52
1516.9
Current Team ELO
1521.4
1521.4
Current Opponent ELO
1516.9
-4.58
Current ELO Difference
4.58
0.49
Expected score
0.51
16
History Matches
52
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
52.32
Overperformance
50.95
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
16
Matches
52
1.56
PPG
1.42
43.8%
Win rate
38.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
31.3%
Loss rate
34.6%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
28
2.50
PPG
1.50
75.0%
Win rate
42.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
0.0%
Loss rate
35.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
0.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
8
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.44
93.8%
Scoring rate
67.3%
68.8%
BTTS rate
51.9%
2.13
Goals for per game
1.43
100.0%
Scoring rate
64.3%
62.5%
BTTS rate
46.4%
16
History Matches
52
1.56
Goals Mean
1.44
0.93
Goals Std
1.45
93.8%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
2.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
1.10
75.0%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.14
62.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
16
History Matches
52
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.36
Conceded Std
0.93
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
16
History Matches
52
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.84
2.45
Stability score
0.97
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
16
Eligible Matches
51
4
Lead Matches
19
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.75
4
Trailing Matches
10
25.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
535.8
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
6
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.35
—
Portability PPG Range
0.71
—
Portability Score
58.56
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
16
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-4.58
PPG0.14
GF0.12
GA0.53
PPG1.00
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-36
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-36
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std-0.51
Scored 1+ rate26.4%
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches-36
Conceded Mean0.53
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Conceded 2+ rate28.8%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.94
History Matches-36
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score1.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches-35
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-35
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days458.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO-4.58
Current Opponent ELO4.58
Current ELO Difference-9.15
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-36
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance1.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lucchese
L
Terranuova Traiana3–2Lucchese1 Nov · away
Pick: Terranuova Traiana 60% · hit D
Lucchese1–1Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano25 Oct · home
Pick: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 44% · missed L
Sasso Marconi Zola2–0Lucchese18 Oct · away
Pick: Sasso Marconi Zola 44% · hit W
Grassina3–6Lucchese4 Oct · away
Pick: Lucchese 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sestri Levante
D
Ligorna0–0Sestri Levante1 Nov · away
Pick: Ligorna 39% · missed D
Sestri Levante0–0Saluzzo25 Oct · home
Pick: Sestri Levante 54% · missed L
Sanremese1–0Sestri Levante18 Oct · away
Pick: Sestri Levante 39% · missed W
Sestri Levante1–0Pistoiese7 Oct · home
Pick: Pistoiese 44% · missed W
Borgosesia0–1Sestri Levante4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed Match report
Lucchese and Sestri Levante finished 1–1 in Coppa Italia Serie D on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Lucchese win 26.3%, draw 24.1%, Sestri Levante win 49.7%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.