ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Machida Zelvia Home · Elo 1,668
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Away · Elo 1,645
Machida GION Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Machida Zelvia win
Machida Zelvia winPick
42.8%
Draw
30.4%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win
26.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.2%
Under 2.554.8%

How much we know

Machida Zelvia history84 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima history92 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Machida Zelvia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,668 against 1,645. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima score more

    1.48 goals a game over 84 matches for Machida Zelvia, against 1.68 over 92 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

  • Defences are close

    Machida Zelvia concede 0.90 a game, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Machida Zelvia matches, against 52% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Machida Zelvia
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1667.7
ELO
1644.8
84
ELO · Matches
92
1667.7
Current Team ELO
1644.8
1644.8
Current Opponent ELO
1667.7
22.83
Current ELO Difference
-22.83
0.53
Expected score
0.47
84
History Matches
92
0.10
Residual Mean
0.07
58.22
Overperformance
56.09
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.60
2.80
Goals for per game
3.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.50
2.00
Goals for per game
2.70
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
92
1.83
PPG
1.88
51.2%
Win rate
56.5%
29.8%
Draw rate
18.5%
19.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.8%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.8%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
47
1.91
PPG
1.64
56.8%
Win rate
48.9%
20.5%
Draw rate
17.0%
22.7%
Loss rate
34.0%
65.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.8%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
44
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.68
76.2%
Scoring rate
83.7%
46.4%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.60
75.0%
Scoring rate
80.9%
43.2%
BTTS rate
51.1%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
84
History Matches
92
1.48
Goals Mean
1.68
1.15
Goals Std
1.28
76.2%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.8%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.8%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.90
Goals against per game
0.95
58.3%
Conceding rate
66.3%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.13
59.1%
Conceding rate
68.1%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
84
History Matches
92
0.90
Conceded Mean
0.95
0.98
Conceded Std
0.91
23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.6%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.5%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.7%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.7%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
92
0.93
Result entropy
0.89
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.62
7.22
Stability score
10.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
91
38
Lead Matches
34
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.87
7
Trailing Matches
14
14.3%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
91
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.77
Rest days
77.78
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
66
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
15
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.33
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
3.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.42
Portability PPG Range
1.00
47.78
Portability Score
59.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
92
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO22.83
PPG-0.05
GF-0.21
GA-0.04
PPG0.67
PPG0.27
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Conceded 2+ rate4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-3.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-11.27
Rest days-1.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO22.83
Current Opponent ELO-22.83
Current ELO Difference45.65
Expected score0.07
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Machida Zelvia

D
Machida Zelvia0–0Gamba Osaka1 Nov · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 55% · missed
W
Shanghai Shenhua0–1Machida Zelvia29 Oct · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 50% · hit
D
Vissel Kobe0–0Machida Zelvia24 Oct · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 40% · missed
W
Shimizu S-pulse0–5Machida Zelvia21 Oct · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 58% · hit
W
Machida Zelvia3–0Avispa Fukuoka18 Oct · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 63% · hit

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

W
Mito Hollyhock0–3Sanfrecce Hiroshima31 Oct · away
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56% · hit
L
Yokohama F. Marinos4–3Sanfrecce Hiroshima28 Oct · away
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 45% · missed
W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0Shimizu S-pulse24 Oct · home
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 65% · hit
L
V-varen Nagasaki4–0Sanfrecce Hiroshima21 Oct · away
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 57% · missed
W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima3–0Kyoto Sanga17 Oct · home
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70% · hit

About this match

Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima meet in J1 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Machida GION Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Machida Zelvia win 42.8%, draw 30.4%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 26.8%. The pick is Machida Zelvia win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.2%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.