ScoreProb
CAF Super Cup World Final 2026

Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger

Mamelodi Sundowns Home · Elo 1,680
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
USM Alger Away · Elo 1,562
Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mamelodi Sundowns win
Mamelodi Sundowns winPick
56.1%
Draw
27.5%
USM Alger win
16.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.4%
Under 2.558.6%

How much we know

Mamelodi Sundowns history86 matches
USM Alger history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mamelodi Sundowns are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mamelodi Sundowns are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,680 against 1,562. On rating alone Mamelodi Sundowns would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Mamelodi Sundowns score far more

    1.79 goals a game over 86 matches for Mamelodi Sundowns, against 1.13 over 76 for USM Alger.

  • Mamelodi Sundowns concede fewer

    Mamelodi Sundowns concede 0.74 a game, USM Alger 0.86.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Mamelodi Sundowns matches, against 33% for USM Alger. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mamelodi Sundowns
USM Alger@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1680.5
ELO
1561.9
86
ELO · Matches
76
1680.5
Current Team ELO
1561.9
1561.9
Current Opponent ELO
1680.5
118.5
Current ELO Difference
-118.5
0.66
Expected score
0.34
86
History Matches
76
0.11
Residual Mean
0.04
59.09
Overperformance
53.18
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
76
2.01
PPG
1.46
57.0%
Win rate
35.5%
30.2%
Draw rate
39.5%
12.8%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
57.9%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
32.9%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
48
Matches
38
2.31
PPG
0.97
68.8%
Win rate
18.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
42.1%
6.3%
Loss rate
39.5%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
55.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
48
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.79
Goals for per game
1.13
84.9%
Scoring rate
71.1%
47.7%
BTTS rate
44.7%
2.15
Goals for per game
0.95
89.6%
Scoring rate
60.5%
45.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
86
History Matches
76
1.79
Goals Mean
1.13
1.35
Goals Std
1.04
84.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
27.6%
29.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.5%
2.15
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.74
Goals against per game
0.86
53.5%
Conceding rate
59.2%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.13
47.9%
Conceding rate
73.7%
86
History Matches
76
0.74
Conceded Mean
0.86
0.88
Conceded Std
0.87
15.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.4%
3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.6%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
52.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
10.4%
Failed-to-score rate
39.5%
46.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
52.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
10.4%
Failed-to-score rate
39.5%
46.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
76
0.86
Result entropy
0.98
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.29
13.96
Stability score
1.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
76
39
Lead Matches
23
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.86
15
Trailing Matches
18
40.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
154.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
65
Normal Rest History Matches
50
2.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
13
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
12
Competition Season Count
7
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.36
Portability PPG Range
1.49
52.11
Portability Score
48.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO118.5
PPG0.55
GF0.66
GA-0.11
PPG1.34
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate25.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.66
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate13.8%
Scored 2+ rate22.4%
Scored 3+ rate18.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score12.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate6.4%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate17.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score3.50
Rest days-77.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.29
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO118.5
Current Opponent ELO-118.5
Current ELO Difference237.1
Expected score0.33
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mamelodi Sundowns

W
Mamelodi Sundowns1–0Golden Arrows3 Nov · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 55% · hit
W
Mamelodi Sundowns1–0Marumo Gallants27 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 56% · hit
D
Mamelodi Sundowns1–1Wiliete23 Oct · home
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 61% · missed
D
Wiliete0–0Mamelodi Sundowns18 Oct · away
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 45% · missed
W
Richards Bay1–4Mamelodi Sundowns13 Oct · away
Pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 50% · hit

USM Alger

D
USM Alger2–2CR Belouizdad24 Oct · home
Pick: USM Alger 42% · missed
L
MB Rouisset1–0USM Alger8 Oct · away
Pick: USM Alger 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mamelodi Sundowns and USM Alger meet in CAF Super Cup on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mamelodi Sundowns win 56.1%, draw 27.5%, USM Alger win 16.3%. The pick is Mamelodi Sundowns win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.4%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.