ScoreProb
Second League A - Division A Gold Russia Fall Season Gold - 17 2026

Mashuk-KMV vs Rodina Moskva II

Mashuk-KMV Home · Elo 1,556
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rodina Moskva II Away · Elo 1,517
Central Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mashuk-KMV win
Mashuk-KMV winPick
35.9%
Draw
34.4%
Rodina Moskva II win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.9%
No57.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.5%
Under 2.564.5%

How much we know

Mashuk-KMV history63 matches
Rodina Moskva II history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Mashuk-KMV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mashuk-KMV are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,517. On rating alone Mashuk-KMV would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.05 goals a game over 63 matches for Mashuk-KMV, against 1.05 over 57 for Rodina Moskva II.

  • Mashuk-KMV concede fewer

    Mashuk-KMV concede 0.79 a game, Rodina Moskva II 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Mashuk-KMV matches, against 40% for Rodina Moskva II. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mashuk-KMV
Rodina Moskva II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.8
ELO
1516.7
63
ELO · Matches
57
1555.8
Current Team ELO
1516.7
1516.7
Current Opponent ELO
1555.8
39.09
Current ELO Difference
-39.09
0.56
Expected score
0.44
63
History Matches
57
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
53.59
Overperformance
51.03
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
57
1.48
PPG
1.30
31.7%
Win rate
33.3%
52.4%
Draw rate
29.8%
15.9%
Loss rate
36.8%
58.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.4%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.4%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
19.3%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
29
1.36
PPG
1.24
24.2%
Win rate
31.0%
63.6%
Draw rate
31.0%
12.1%
Loss rate
37.9%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
24.2%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
12.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
33
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.05
Goals for per game
1.05
60.3%
Scoring rate
59.6%
41.3%
BTTS rate
42.1%
0.88
Goals for per game
0.90
57.6%
Scoring rate
55.2%
36.4%
BTTS rate
31.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
57
1.05
Goals Mean
1.05
1.13
Goals Std
1.07
60.3%
Scored 1+ rate
59.6%
30.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
7.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.5%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.79
Goals against per game
1.09
50.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.14
42.4%
Conceding rate
62.1%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
57
0.79
Conceded Mean
1.09
0.91
Conceded Std
1.10
23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
49.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
39.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
57.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
42.4%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
49.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
39.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
57.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
42.4%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
49.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
57
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.32
Goal Difference Std
1.52
9.42
Stability score
0.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
12
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
12
40.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.88
Rest days
78.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
43
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.33
PPG
2.33
16.7%
Win rate
66.7%
83.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.22
Portability PPG Range
1.44
84.11
Portability Score
46.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO39.09
PPG0.18
GF-0.01
GA-0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG0.12
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate0.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score9.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.83
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-1.22
Portability Score37.82
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO39.09
Current Opponent ELO-39.09
Current ELO Difference78.18
Expected score0.11
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mashuk-KMV

D
Novosibirsk1–1Mashuk-KMV31 Oct · away
Pick: Novosibirsk 40% · missed
D
Mashuk-KMV2–2Dinamo Vladivostok24 Oct · home
Pick: Mashuk-KMV 47% · missed
D
Alaniya Vladikavkaz3–3Mashuk-KMV18 Oct · away
Pick: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 42% · missed
D
Mashuk-KMV1–1Dinamo Kirov4 Oct · home
Pick: Mashuk-KMV 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rodina Moskva II

D
Rodina Moskva II1–1Dinamo Kirov31 Oct · home
Pick: Rodina Moskva II 43% · missed
L
FK Sokol Saratov3–0Rodina Moskva II24 Oct · away
Pick: FK Sokol Saratov 37% · hit
D
Rodina Moskva II1–1Volgar Astrakhan18 Oct · home
Pick: Rodina Moskva II 44% · missed
W
Rodina Moskva II3–0Kaluga4 Oct · home
Pick: Rodina Moskva II 45% · hit
W
Rodina Moskva II4–0FK Sokol Saratov30 Aug · home
Pick: Rodina Moskva II 51% · hit

About this match

Mashuk-KMV and Rodina Moskva II meet in Second League A - Division A Gold on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Central Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Mashuk-KMV win 35.9%, draw 34.4%, Rodina Moskva II win 29.7%. The pick is Mashuk-KMV win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.5%. Both teams to score: 42.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.